Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Pick – MLB October 19, 2021

The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers take the NLCS to Dodger Stadium for Game 3. The Braves won the NL East, so have the privilege of having homefield advantage in the NLCS. Despite the Dodgers finishing with a record of 106-56 and well ahead of the Braves, they didn’t win the NL West. That gives the Braves the keys to homefield advantage through the NLCS.

We talked about how important the Dodgers winning the NL West, but they were able to overcome that against the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers edged the Giants out in Game 5 to earn the right to play the Braves. Atlanta protected Truist Park, as they won both Game 1 and Game 2.

The Dodgers were close to evening things up in Game 2. Chris Taylor smacked a 2-run double to break a 2-2 deadlock in the 7th inning. It looked like with the Dodgers’ bullpen that they were going to hold on and get this series to Dodger Stadium tied at a game apiece. The Braves weren’t going to let that happen.

In what looked like a tough spot for the Braves, Julio Urias entered the game as a reliever. Urias struggled to put away the Braves, though, as he gave up 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th. The Braves ended the game in the 9th with a walk-off for a 5-4 win. It was the second straight game the Braves won in walkoff fashion, this time an Eddie Rosario hit.

The Dodgers have to pick themselves up and now it’s their job to protect Dodger Stadium. The Braves have been peeking at the perfect time, so I can’t say that I’m overly surprised by what’s happening here. It’s certainly going to be tough for them to close the Dodgers out on the road, though.

This should be a quality pitching matchup between Charlie Morton and Walker Buehler. Morton and Buehler have both been incredibly underrated pitchers. They’ve both been terrific assets for their team. Buehler is a Cy Young candidate, but I don’t believe he gets the credit he deserves from the media. Morton has been a steady arm for the Braves and is peaking. Head below for our free Braves vs. Dodgers pick on October 19, 2021.

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-137) +160 Under 7.5 (-115)
LA Dodgers -1.5 (+117) -174 Over 7.5 (-105)
Team Data Atlanta Braves LA Dodgers
Overall Record 93-74 110-60
Away/Home Record 47-36 60-24
Batting Average .240 .240
Batting Average Away/Home .234 .241
Runs Per 9 5.01 5.16
Team ERA 3.82 3.00
Team ERA Away/Home 3.66 2.94

Braves vs. Dodgers Prediction:

Charlie Morton has a better than puncher’s chance of leading the Braves to a 3-0 lead in the NLCS. This is the same Dodgers team that has been known for going into choke mode in October. Despite winning the World Series last year, they’ve come up short more often than not when they’re expected to win.

Considering Morton’s current form, he has the tools to get the Braves a win on the road. Morton is going into Tuesday night with an ERA of 3.34 and a 1.04 WHIP in 34 starts in the regular season. Through two postseason outings, Morton has allowed 4 earned runs in 9.1 innings of work for a 3.86 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

Morton has done a fine job of avoiding getting killed on the mound. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in a performance since August 24 against the New York Yankees. Following that outing, Morton was impressive against the Dodgers with 3 hits and 1 run allowed in a 3-2 loss on August 31.

He’s held up well against the Dodgers in his career. Note that they’re hitting .200 with just 1 home run in 116 at-bats. Limiting the Dodgers to only 1 home across that sample size is awfully impressive. There aren’t many starters in the majors that are capable of delivering that kind of work.


Atlanta Braves vs. LA Dodgers Betting Trends:

Braves

  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five postseason games
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five games versus the NL West
  • 12-1 overall in their previous 13 games versus a team with a winning record
  • 8-1 overall in their previous nine games on the road versus a team with a right-handed pitcher
  • UNDER is 4-0 in their previous four games as an underdog on the road
  • UNDER is 4-0 in their previous four games after a day off
  • UNDER is 4-0 in their previous four games on the road in the postseason

Dodgers

  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 40-13 overall in their previous 53 games at Dodger Stadium
  • 17-1 overall in their previous 18 games at Dodger Stadium
  • UNDER is 5-0 in their previous games versus the Braves at Dodger Stadium
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games versus the NL East
  • UNDER is 6-1-2 in their previous nine NLCS games

Morton will likely have to be sharp as a tack with Walker Buehler going for the Dodgers. Buehler could very well win the Cy Young, which he would certainly deserve.

He recorded an ERA of 2.47 and a 0.97 WHIP this season. Buehler has been his best at Dodger Stadium where he owns a 2.05 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP through 123 innings.

The Braves have been handcuffed against Buehler in his career. They’re hitting .148 with a .164 OBP in 51 at-bats. Joc Pederson and Freddie Freeman are the only Braves to go deep on Buehler.

The OVER just got there late in Game 2, but that was only the first matchup in six matchups that the UNDER didn’t cash between the Braves and Dodgers. The UNDER is 5-1 with an average of 6.6 runs scored per game since June 6.

I’m not interested in laying that much juice on the Dodgers to win, but the total is worth a look. I like a 4-3 or 4-2 final score for this one to stay UNDER 7.5 runs.

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Braves vs. Dodgers Pick
UNDER 7.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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