The Milwaukee Brewers opened their NLDS series against the Atlanta Braves at American family Field on Friday. One swing of the bat from Rowdy Tellez is all it took for the Brewers. With a runner on in the bottom of the 7th, Tellez sent a 2-run bomb over the fence to give the Brewers a 2-0 lead. What was Charlie Morton to do? He was on fire in that game and only made a mistake or two.
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 9, 2021
Morton deserved more help from his teammates, but Corbin Burnes put the locks on the Braves’ bats. He gave up 2 hits and 3 walks across 6 innings of work. The Braves had an opportunity with runners on in the 9th. They had a runner on 1st and 2nd with 1 out, and then the corners with 2 outs. That went nowhere, as Tyler Matzek was able to end the game and give the Brewers a 1-0 series lead.
It was a game that could have gone in either direction. The Brewers have to be aware that the Braves aren’t going anywhere. They can’t relax now because it’s not like their offensive output was anything to get excited about. If Tellez doesn’t connect on that shot, maybe the Braves edge out a 1-0 win.
With Burnes dealing, the Brewers only had to use two pitchers from their bullpen. They have a fresh and talented bullpen to work with tonight and likely beyond to Game 3. That’s what makes the Brewers so dangerous in the postseason. They can go deep into their pitching staff and still have talented arms to throw at lineups. That’s how you win a World Series.
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 9, 2021
There are other teams that can do that as well, notably the San Francisco Giants, so we’ll see how things play out. The Giants are off to a 1-0 series lead after a commanding 4-0 win over the Dodgers last night. Atlanta needs a win to avoid a 2-0 hole, which would mean they need three straight wins to get to the NLCS.
Max Fried will be required to come up with a big performance at American Family Field tonight. Some run support would be nice, because a big effort from Morton didn’t help yesterday. Brandon Woodruff is scheduled to toe the rubber for the Brewers in Game 2. Head below for our free Braves vs. Brewers NLDS Game 2 pick on October 9, 2021.
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Live Odds and Betting History:
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
|Atlanta Braves||+1.5 (-190)||+114||Over 7.5 (+100)|
|Milwaukee Brewers||-1.5 (+165)||-124||Under 7.5 (-120)|
|Team Data||Atlanta Braves||Milwaukee Brewers|
|Batting Average Away/Home||.236||.219|
|Runs Per 9||5.06||4.66|
|Team ERA Away/Home||3.37||3.67|
Braves vs. Brewers Prediction:
Max Fried gives the Atlanta Braves a good chance to give the offense a chance to win on Saturday. He got hot at the perfect time and is looking for it to carry over to the postseason. Fried finished the regular season with an ERA of 3.04 and a 1.09 WHIP through 165.2 innings of work.
He had a breaking out party last year during the 60-game COVID season. Fried clearly wanted to stick around in the rotation as a fulltime member this season. He posted an ERA of 2.25 and a 1.09 WHIP. Fried showed this season that his effort through 11 games wasn’t a fluke.
Fried received four starts in the postseason last year and held up well. He finished with an ERA of 3.04 through 25.1 innings. It was his first year as a starter in the postseason. Not too bad for Fried, who has been a consistent arm for the Braves.
To close out the regular season, Fried was consistently amazing. Across his previous three attempts, he had an ERA of 0.39 and a 0.48 WHIP in 23 innings. His opponents had a lackluster OBP of .141. He’s been consistently good further back than that, though. Fried hasn’t conceded more than 3 runs since July 23 against the Phillies.
He has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 8 of his next 11 attempts. In 26 at-bats against the Brewers, they didn’t record a home run or RBI against Fried, so that’s working in the Braves’ favor as well.
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends:
- Record (Last 10): 8-2
- 12-3 overall in their previous 14 games
- 1-4 overall in their previous five games versus the Brewers
- 4-8 overall in their previous 12 games at American Family Fiend
- UNDER is 6-2 in their previous eight games
- UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games
- Max Fried ERA (Last 3): 0.39
- Record (Last 10): 5-5
- 4-1 overall in their previous five games at American Family Field
- 8-4 overall in their previous 12 games versus the Braves at American Family Field
- UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games versus the NL East
- UNDER is 14-6 in their previous 20 games in October
- UNDER is 4-0 in their previous four postseason games
- Brandon Woodruff ERA (Last 3): 3.38
Brandon Woodruff goes into the postseason with an ERA of 2.56 and a 0.96 WHIP. He’s another arm on a long list of pitchers on the Brewers’ pitching staff that can deliver solid innings. Like the other members, Woodruff is consistent and reliable.
Through his last three games going into Saturday, Woodruff posted an ERA of 3.38 and a 0.94 WHIP across 16 innings of work. He’s allowed 2 or less earned runs in four of his last six attempts this season. His work at home in Milwaukee has been impressive as well.
Woodruff recorded an ERA of 2.31 and a 0.98 WHIP in 87.1 innings at American Family Field. The Braves are hitting .229 with 4 home runs against Woodruff in 65 at-bats. They hit 4 home runs in much fewer innings against Corbin Burnes going into Game 1 and that didn’t end up translating, though. There’s probably going to be more than 3 runs on the board, but another low-scoring final is likely.