Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers NLDS Game 1 Pick – MLB October 8, 2021

The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers open their NLDS series at American Family Field on Friday. There are four games scheduled, with first pitch at 4:27 p.m. EST in Milwaukee.

The ALDS and NLDS are all set after the LA Dodgers walked off the St. Louis Cardinals last night. Atlanta and Milwaukee had no interest in the Wild Card, as they won the NL East and NL Central.

The Braves probably deserved to play the Cardinals in the Wild Card, though. Because of a slow start this season, the Braves finished with a record of 88-73. Meanwhile, the Dodgers had to go to the Wild Card with 106 wins.

The Braves had the worst regular season record out of divisional winners. If Marcell Ozuna didn’t have his legal problems, and Ronald Acuna Jr. didn’t get injured, this season might have gone differently for the Braves.

In the end of it all, the Braves still won the NL East easily by 6.5 games. The Braves cleared the Phillies to clinch the division after flying up after the All-Star break. It took the Braves a minute to figure out how to play without Ozuna and Acuna Jr., but when they did, everything came together nicely for them.

They finished the first-half with a losing record of 44-45. That was disappointing, but it’s how you finish, and their act in the second-half was much more impressive. After going a game under .500, the Braves ended the year 15 games above .500. In what was a bad NL East, it was more than enough.

The Brewers didn’t have the same problems in the NL Central. They had the division locked up long ago. The Brew Crew wrapped up the season with a record of 95-67. While the Cardinals came on hard late, the Brewers were too far ahead and won by five games.

They rode the most underrated pitching staff in baseball to the NL Central crown. Craig Counsell has announced that Corbin Burnes will receive the Game 1 start, while Brandon Woodruff is scheduled to get the nod for Game 2.

The Braves are opening the NLDS with the reliable Charlie Morton in Game 1. He finished off the regular season in good form. Head below for our free Braves vs. Brewers NLDS Game 1 pick on October 8, 2021.

Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-165) +138 Over 7 (-115)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+145) -149 Under 7 (-105)
Team Data Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers
Overall Record 88-73 95-67
Away/Home Record 46-35 45-36
Batting Average .240 .230
Batting Average Away/Home .236 .219
Runs Per 9 5.06 4.66
Team ERA 3.89 3.48
Team ERA Away/Home 3.37 3.67

Braves vs. Brewers Prediction:

Charlie Morton recorded an ERA of 3.13 in 2018 with the Astros, and then followed up with a 3.05 ERA in his first season with the Rays in 2019. Everything was going well for the consistent Morton. That was until the pandemic happened and Morton regressed considerably.

His consistent form wasn’t able to develop across nine starts, as Morton finished with an ERA of 4.74 and a 1.39 WHIP across 38 innings of work. The good news is that Morton was able to find his rhythm again back in a normal 162-game season.

My MLB record was the worst I’ve had at TheSportsGeek during the 60-game campaign, so some people just didn’t care for it much, pitchers and handicappers included. That said, Morton did get going in the postseason with an ERA of 2.70 in four starts.

Morton is going into Milwaukee with an ERA of 3.34 and a 1.04 WHIP. He turned it on after allowing 4 earned runs versus the New York Yankees on August 24.

Since then, Morton has conceded 3 or less earned runs in seven straight appearances. He has an ERA of 1.72 and a 0.83 WHIP in his last three starts going into the postseason.

In five of those attempts, he allowed 2 or less earned runs. Over his last 9.2 innings of work, Morton allowed 4 hits and no earned runs. He issued just 2 walks during that stretch. Morton draws a fairly favorable matchup in this series, as he’s had success versus the Brewers in the past.

Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 8-2
  • 8-1 overall in their previous nine games
  • 12-2 overall in their previous 14 games
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games on the road
  • 4-0 overall in their previous four games on the road versus a team with a winning record
  • 7-0 overall in their previous seven games on the road versus a right-handed starter
  • Charlie Morton ERA (Last 3): 1.72


  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games
  • 2-7 overall in their previous nine games after a loss
  • 2-5 overall in their previous seven games after allowing 5 or more runs
  • 8-3 overall in their 11 games after a day off
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five NLDS games in Milwaukee
  • Corbin Burnes ERA (Last 3): 4.20

Corbin Burnes is in the running for the National League Cy Young. After posting an ERA of 2.43 and a 0.94 WHIP, there’s no doubt that Burnes has the numbers to win the prestigious award. However, he didn’t really finish the regular season in top form.

He allowed at least 3 earned runs in three of his previous four starts. Burnes exited the regular season with an ERA of 4.20 and a 1.20 WHIP in his last 15 innings. He also wasn’t his best at American Family Field. Burnes had a 1.94 ERA with a record of 7-1 on the road versus a 2.85 ERA and 4-4 record at home.

The Braves were responsible for dinging his numbers. They’ve been impressive against Burnes with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs in 38 at-bats. Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Joc Pederson are all hitting better than .500 versus Burnes. Swanson has knocked Burnes for 4 hits and 2 home runs in 5 at-bats.

There isn’t many people that have much faith in the Braves after they finished with the worst record of divisional winners in 2021. However, the Braves are hot right now with 12 wins in their last 14 outings. They’ve also had the edge over Burnes in past starts. At this generous price there’s certainly a case for the Braves.


Braves vs. Brewers Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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