Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Pick – Major League Baseball May 2, 2022

The New York Mets will put their National League-best record on the line tonight as they welcome the defending World Series Champion Atlanta Braves to town for game 1 of a 4-game series between a pair of NL East Division rivals. The Mets are playing high-level baseball, as no team in the majors has more wins than New York does, and the Mets have managed to win every series that they have played so far this season. All of this winning comes despite some key injuries that have left New York short-handed at times.

For Atlanta, the Braves are off to a slow start, but nobody is close to hitting the panic button yet, as this team has plenty of talent and they should still be considered an NL pennant contender, even with their inconsistent play in April. The Braves are hoping that a win tonight in the series opener will help them win their first road series of year, as Atlanta has lost each of their last 2 road series, dropping 5 of their last 7 games away from home.

This line opened up with the Mets laying (-135) but nearly all of the early action has come in on Atlanta, shifting the line sharply towards the Braves, to where it stands now, with the Mets as small (-110) home field favorites. The game total over/under is set at 6.5 runs in what is expected to be a low scoring game with a starting pitching matchup featuring the Braves Max Fried and the Mets Chris Bassitt. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Citi Field in New York City.

Atlanta Braves (10-13)

There is a reason that nobody in Atlanta is worried that the Braves aren’t playing very well right now and that is because last year when they won the World Series, they didn’t start to play quality ball until after the trade deadline. The MLB regular season is a marathon, not a sprint, and the Braves know that losing in April doesn’t say too much about your chances to win in October.

That being said, it was certainly concerning to see the Braves go into Texas in their last series and drop 2 of 3 to the last place Rangers. The Braves still have plenty of power, as they lead the National League in home runs, but they are batting just .229 as a team, and their once mighty starting rotation is banged up and struggling.

Kyle Wright is pitching great, and Max Fried has started to dial things in after a slow start, but veteran starter Charlie Morton is finally starting to look his age, and Ian Anderson has been getting touched up with regularity after a breakout season last year for Atlanta. Former ace Mike Soroka should be back at some point in the 2nd half of the year, but right now, the Braves are going to have to find ways to keep their heads above water until he fully recovers from a torn Achilles.

Max Fried

After giving up a total of 8 runs across 11 innings in his first 2 starts of the season, both games that the Braves lost, Max Fried has been much better in his last couple of outings. In starts against the Dodgers and Cubs, Fried has worked a combined 13 innings and has given up only 1 earned run, on 6 hits, and no walks.

That is the type of production that the Braves have come to expect from Fried, as he has emerged as the ace of the Braves rotation in the last 2 seasons. Going back to 2019, Fried has racked up an impressive 38-13 record with an ERA of right around 3 and a half runs. If the Braves are going to contend for the NL East Division title again this season, it will be because Max Fried continues to lead the way at the top of Atlanta’s starting rotation.

Today’s Starting Pitching Matchup

Max Fried

  • (2-2)
  • 3.00 ERA
  • 7.9 K/9 Ratio
  • 0.917 WHIP
Chris Bassitt

  • (3-1)
  • 2.25 ERA
  • 9.8 K/9 Ratio
  • 0.917 WHIP

New York Mets (16-7)

The New York Mets made a lot of headlines in the offseason, as their new billionaire owner, Steve Cohen, made it very clear that money was no object in New York under his ownership. The Mets went out and signed Mad Max Scherzer to the highest annual salary contract in Major League Baseball history and they made sure that the lineup felt the love as well with free agent deals to sign Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar.

At least for now, that looks like money well spent, as the Mets have been playing better than we have seen them play in over a decade. The Mets are getting the job done on both sides of the field, as they are 2nd in the majors in team batting average and they are 3rd in the game in team ERA. New York also has been excellent on defense as well, as their .991 field percentage is tops in the National League.

This team hits, they pitch, and they play elite D, no wonder they have the best record in the league.

What must be scary for the rest of the NL East Division, is that the Mets aren’t as good as they are going to be later this year, as perennial Cy Young Award candidate Jacob deGrom has yet to throw a pitch this season, and they just got fellow starter, Taijuan Walker, back after he missed a couple of weeks with an injury. To put it simply, the Mets got dudes and they have the rest of the National League officially on notice.

Chris Bassitt

I’ve always felt that pitching in Oakland held Chris Bassitt back from being a star. Going back to 2018, I don’t know if there was a more consistently solid starter, that nobody ever talked about, than Chris Bassitt. This guy is good for double-digit wins and an ERA in the low 3-run range which makes him a starter that any team would love to have in their rotation.

Bassitt finished in the top-10 in the American League Cy Young Award voting in each of the last 2 seasons, yet when the Mets made the move to acquire him right before the start of the regular season, it wasn’t a trade that many looked at as a needle mover. That is somewhat understandable, as it is certainly tough to stick out in New York, pitching behind monsters like Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but Mets fans are seeing the same stellar performer that Athletics fans came to know and love in his 7-year stint in Oakland.

Bassitt has made 4 starts for his new team, and with the exception of one bad outing against the San Francisco Giants, he has been fantastic. In his other 3 starts, he has pitched a total of 18 innings and has allowed just a single earned run, on only 7 hits.

And even in that bad start against the Giants, he was somewhat decent, as he gave up 4 runs in the first 2 innings and battled back to give his team 6 innings of work. The lack of media coverage suited Bassitt well in Oakland, and with plenty of star power to steal the spotlight in New York, he seems to enjoy pitching without too much attention in the Big Apple as well. Players like Chriss Bassitt aren’t all that notable to the casual fans, but they are the types of guys that you need if you are going to win a World Series title.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Odds And Team Statistics

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Money line Total Run Line
Atlanta Braves (+100) Over 6.5 (-110) +1.5 (-200)
New York Mets (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) -1.5 (+170)
Team Data Atlanta Braves New York Mets
Overall Record 10-13 16-7
Home Record 6-7 7-3
Away Record 4-6 9-4
Runs Per Game 5.90 2.50
Earned Runs Against Per Game 4.28 2.99
Hits Per Game 9.40 7.10
K’s Per Game 9.70 7.80

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction:

The NL East is amongst the most home-dominated divisions in all of baseball. That was the case last season, and we are already seeing that trend play out again this season. I try to never overreact to a sample size of data, and I can assure you that the Braves are going to be in the playoff conversation all year long, despite their weak play so far, but what I have seen so far from the Mets has me looking at them as the real deal.

Any team can put together a nice run when they get hot. Even the worst teams in the game will have a week or two where they play well and string together a bunch of wins. But I don’t think what the Mets are doing right now is at all fluky, as I see this as a well-designed roster, that is built to win a division title. I am not ready to say that the Mets are going to run away with the NL East Division title, but I do think that they are the favorites to take home the division title crown at this point.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Trends:

Atlanta Braves
  • Atlanta is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against NY Mets.
  • Atlanta is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 12 games against an opponent in the National League.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games against an opponent in the National League East Division
  • Atlanta is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played on a Monday.
New York Mets
  • NY Mets are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games.
  • NY Mets are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games at home.
  • NY Mets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the National League.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets’ last 5 games played on a Monday when at home.

This team does all of the little things right, and they protect their home field ferociously. I hate to be on the other side of Max Fried, as he is one of my favorite young pitchers in the game. But to be able to get the team with the best record in the league, at home, where they rarely ever lose, at basically even money no less, is just too much value to pass up on.

Chris Bassitt almost always pitches well enough to give his team a chance to win games. The Braves bats went cold over the weekend, as they managed only 4 runs in their pair of games with the Texas Rangers and I can’t imagine that they are going to be able to get back on track today against Chris Bassitt.

I doubt that Max Fried is going to be bad, but I see this starting pitching matchup as a coin flip at best, and I might even lean slightly towards Bassitt, given how well he has pitched this season. And when you look at the rest of the factors in this game, the Mets seem to be the side to be on, as they are better at the plate, better in the bullpen, and they are winning games at a higher rate than any other team in the league.

I will take the home team in this one, with a play on the Mets as small home favorites. I love that the public is on the other side, as fading the public is always going to be my jam. Give me the Mets laying (-110) as they take the series opener against the Atlanta Braves!


Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Pick
New York Mets
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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