The money line underdog winners just keep coming in. We picked up the win last night when we took the Colorado Rockies as road dogs against the San Francisco Giants. We got it at Colorado +115, but by game time, the Giants had moved to even bigger -140 favorites. So, depending on when you bet it, you could have enjoyed an even bigger payout.
I really liked what Rockies starter Chad Bettis had been doing on the road this season. Away from Coors Field this year, Bettis had been elite. He pitched well early on as through five innings he had allowed just one run. He did get dinged a bit in the bottom of the sixth for two runs, and that ended his day at six innings pitched with three runs allowed. That was good enough to keep this game tied until the twelfth inning when Carlos Gonzalez singled in two runs to give us the extra innings win. We are now 7-3-1 in our last ten games with three of those wins coming on plus money underdogs. For today’s bet I will look at the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox.
The Baltimore Orioles are in Boston Friday night for game two of a four-game series with the Red Sox. The Orioles hold the dubious distinction of being in last place in the American League East and their thirteen wins are the second fewest in the American League behind only the Chicago White Sox. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have the most wins in all of baseball at thirty. The Red Sox took game one last night, 6-2, behind a complete game from starter David Price. Price hit the ninth inning with a shutout intact but allowed two runs late to blow the shutout.
Starting tonight for the Orioles is Alex Cobb (0-5 7.06 ERA), and for the Boston, it is Drew Pomeranz (1-1 5.47 ERA). The Red Sox are -162 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Fenway Park in Boston.
The Boston Red Sox just might be the best team in the major leagues this year. They have some competition from the New York Yankee and the Houston Astro for that claim, but right now they lead all of baseball in wins. They have played this Baltimore Orioles team four times this season. They are 4-0 in those games with each game decided by at least two runs. They hold a 26-9 scoring advantage in the season series with Baltimore. These games haven’t been close, Boston is dominating the last place Orioles.
Starting tonight for Boston is Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz started his season a little bit late and has yet to get fully stretched out. He is really struggling to get deep into games and has pitched six innings just twice in his first five starts. Luckily that was two out of his last three starts, so it is starting to look like he is molding into mid-season form. In his last start, he threw 103 pitches, he just had command issues all day long and lasted just four innings, as he walked five batters.
Pomeranz has reason to be optimistic tonight about his command problems as the Orioles are one of the worst teams in the league at drawing walks, and they are last in all of baseball in on-base percentage. This seems like a great spot for Pomeranz to start to recapture last season’s success where he went 17-6 with just a 3.22 ERA.
For the Orioles, they will start Alex Cobb. It is hard to remember that Alex Cobb was actually considered a fairly major offseason acquisition for the Orioles this year. In his six seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays, Cobb was good for double-digit wins and an ERA of right around three runs each year. He was one of the more consistent arms in the AL East. It seemed like a no-brainer type of move staying within the same division he had pitched his whole career in, but it just hasn’t worked out this year for Cobb.
The Orioles are 0-6 in games in which Cobb has started and his personal record in 0-5. He has pitched a little bit better in May than he did in April when he ended the first month of the season with a 13.11 ERA. He has pitched against Boston once already this year, and it wasn’t pretty. He got hammered for eight runs in just three and two-thirds of an inning of work. This Red Sox team has done a good job of making great pitchers look bad this year, it could get ugly tonight against a guy in Cobb who is really struggling right now.
This game has blowout written all over it. You’ve got the best team in baseball against maybe the worst team in baseball. The White Sox are bad, but that was intentional, this Baltimore team had eyes on competing this year and they stink. The Red Sox have dominated the season series, and I see no reason why that shouldn’t continue tonight. And better yet, we are going to be able to back Boston on the run line, and actually, pick up some healthy dog money at +120.
I am always very leery of the run line. I hate turning a winning pick into a loser by trying for the bigger payout. But it is games like this one today, where it is really worth laying that run and a half and picking up over eighty cents of juice. And I will do just that. Give me the Boston Red Sox laying a run and a half at +120 tonight at home in game two!