Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners – MLB May 3

10:10 p.m. ET – Orioles at Mariners (-135 ML) O/U: 8.5

The 13-15 Orioles travel to Seattle for a three-game series against the 16-13 Mariners. Baltimore has won three of its last four games, including two of three in Oakland over the weekend. Seattle also has won three of its last four, taking two of three from the Angels over the weekend at T-Mobile Park, including a 2-0 win on Sunday behind six scoreless innings pitched from right-hander Justus Sheffield. These two teams played four games in early April, where they split the doubleheader in Baltimore and the Mariners swept a doubleheader in Seattle.

Three of the four games in the series were decided by one run.

About the Orioles

Baltimore Orioles LogoThe Orioles appear to be a team worthy of being well under .500 on paper. Baltimore averages 3.8 runs per game, the fifth-fewest in all of Major League Baseball. The Orioles rank in the bottom 10 teams in baseball in all of the following categories: On-Base Percentage, Slugging, OPS, Home runs and stolen bases.

Right fielder Trey Mancini is the heavy favorite for American League Comeback Player of the Year after his triumph over colon cancer in 2020 and leading his team with five home runs and 21 RBI just over a month into the season. Center fielder Cedric Mullins also has been a pleasant surprise, batting .321 with four home runs and nine RBI.

Baltimore is not going to compete for a playoff spot this season, but the rebuild is underway and they have lots of solid young talent that has made the Orioles a tough out in the early going this season.

About the Mariners

Seattle Mariners LogoIf anyone had said prior to the season that they believed Seattle would be one game back of first in the American League West on May 3, they would have been issued a pass to the nuthouse. And yet here we are on May 3, and that is exactly the case. The Mariners have done it by consistently winning close games.

Posting an 8-4 record thus far in one-run games, which is why they are three games over .500 despite having an overall run differential of -3. Outfielder Mitch Haniger is batting .269 with seven home runs and 21 RBI to start the season, looking a lot like he did in 2018 when he made his only All-Star team to date. Second baseman Ty France has busted onto the scene this year with a .269 average, three home runs and 12 RBI. One key addition for the Mariners this time around against the Orioles is 2020 American League Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. He returned to the diamond on April 20, but has struggled since returning from a right knee injury, batting .184 in 38 at-bats. Veteran third baseman Kyle Seager has joined in on the fun over the past week with a .308 batting average and only three strikeouts in his last seven games.

Seattle’s pitching staff does a great job limiting the home run ball, allowing the fourth-fewest in all of baseball to this point with only 27 long balls hit against them. However, the Mariners also strike out fewer hitters than any team in the league, recording only 7.55 strikeouts per nine innings.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Baltimore Orioles +1½ (-170) +115 O 8½ (-105)
Seattle Mariners -1½ (+140) -135 U 8½ (-115)

The Pitching Matchup

Baltimore is turning to right-hander Dean Kremer on Monday night. Kremer is 0-2 in four starts this season with an 8.40 ERA over 15 innings pitched. Kremer started against Seattle on April 13 and allowed four runs in only three innings of work. Kremer has not made it through five innings in a single start this year.

The Mariners are giving right-hander Erik Swanson the assignment for the series opener. Swanson appeared out of the bullpen once this season for two innings of shutout baseball and it was in the same game on April 13. In Swanson’s third year in the big leagues, this will be his ninth career start.

What’s the Bet?
This marks only the second time all season that Seattle is favored in a game. The Mariners won that previous game 4-2 on April 15 at home against these same Orioles. These two teams feature loads of young talent and both should be playoff contenders within three years, but the fact of the matter is right now the Mariners are the more consistent team.

Baltimore is going to get the same Dean Kremer we have seen in every start so far this season, making it virtually a lock that Seattle will be able to get to him for at least three to four runs. That places value on the Mariners to win the first five innings, even if Swanson as a starting pitcher is a mystery in his own right. Swanson nonetheless is fresh and had success against this lineup earlier this year, so he should be brimming with confidence. Seattle likely will begin regressing soon, but not against the Orioles on Monday night.

Back the Mariners to win the first five innings of the series opener..
The Bets
Mariners First Five Innings Moneyline

*Odds Courtesy of MyBookie Sportsbook

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Joe Menzer / Author

Joe is an award-winning writer and editor who has covered the NBA, NFL, NASCAR, golf, various collegiate athletics and other sports for newspapers, Turner Sports, Fox Sports and ESPN. He has been on the beat for seven Super Bowls, six Daytona 500s and numerous NBA playoff series and All-Star Games. He once was dispatched to Rome, Italy to spend time with an NBA draft choice who opted to play overseas, after which he produced an award-winning series of stories. He also is passionate about fantasy sports and breaking down games in ways that even novice gamblers can use to make their most intelligent wagering decisions.