Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins Pick – MLB July 2, 2022

The Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins are back at Target Field in Minnesota this afternoon. It was an exciting night if you’re a Twins fan, as they walked the Orioles off in the bottom of the 9th.

In a 2-1 game, Byron Buxton ended things with one swing of the bat. Buxton sent a 2-run shot over the fence to give the Twins a 3-2 win. That’s a tough one to take and a wasted effort from Spenser Watkins.

Watkins allowed 3 hits and 1 earned run in 6 innings of work. That deserves a win for Watkins. Despite the loss, at least the Orioles are playing more competitive baseball.

Baltimore is going into tonight at 35-43. They’re 21.5 games behind the Yankees, but that’s not the point. This is a club that hasn’t been competing since reaching the postseason in 2016.

They regressed and went full-blown rebuild mode after trading Manny Machado. Machado is gone, but it was done for a better future in Baltimore.

Baltimore is slowly coming around and should be more dangerous soon.

Doing enough to threaten the Yankees at the AL East is something that may not happen regardless of how well the rebuild goes, though. If the Orioles can become as competitive as the Blue Jays, that’d be major progress, though.

With the win, the Twins advanced to 44-36 and a 1.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland has been coming on hard recently, so the Twins can’t afford to put things on cruise control.

Cleveland has done a fine job playing catch-up, as they were down by well more than five games in what feels like just yesterday. The Twins have to hear the footsteps.

Head below for our free Orioles vs. Twins prediction on July 2, 2022.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-110) +190 Over 9 (+100)
Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-110) -230 Under 9 (-120)
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Team Data Baltimore Orioles Minnesota Twins
Overall Record 35-43 44-36
Away/Home Record 17-26 24-17
Batting Average .226 .249
Batting Average Away/Home .226 .251
Runs Per 9 4.08 4.60
Team ERA 4.03 3.68
Team ERA Away/Home 4.69 3.51

Orioles vs. Twins Prediction:

The Twins have been ecstatic with what they’ve seen out of Sonny Gray this season. Gray is in good form and has not slowed down recently.

He is going into this afternoon with an ERA of 2.17 and a 0.97 WHIP.

Gray had that one bad season in the Bronx with the Yankees, but he’s otherwise been pretty reliable in his career. Since entering the major leagues in 2013, Gray has a career ERA of 3.55 and a 1.21 WHIP.

Through his previous three starts, Gray has notched an ERA of 1.69 and a 0.94 WHIP. He’s been in consistent shape, with no more than 3 earned runs allowed and two or fewer runs in eight of nine starts.

Gray should have a successful afternoon in this one versus the Orioles. They are hitting .225 with 3 home runs in 79 at-bats.

The O’s offense must come through in this one. I don’t have the best confidence in Jordan Lyles.

Lyles is carrying an ERA of 4.94 and a 1.46 WHIP into Target Field. He’s largely run into command issues on the road instead of at Camden Yards.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games
  • 0-10 overall in their previous ten games at Minnesota
  • 18-52 overall in their previous 70 games on the road versus a team with a winning record
  • 24-63 overall in their previous 87 second game of a series
  • UNDER is 9-2 in their previous 11 games


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games at home
  • 7-3 overall in their previous ten games on a Saturday
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus a starter with a WHIP worse than 1.30
  • 20-6 overall in thier previous 26 games versus the Orioles at home
  • UNDER is 10-2-1 in their previous 13 games versus a team with a losing record

  • Lyles has been struggling to get out of innings on the road. He has posted an ERA of 6.47 and a 1.54 WHIP through 50.1 innings of work.

    Note that Lyles has conceded at least 4 earned runs in four of his previous five starts.

    He’s looked lost in 28 at-bats versus the Twins. Minnesota is hitting .401 with a .438 OBP against the 11-year veteran.

    Lyles hasn’t shown good form since 2019 and that was a rare solid year. This was only a 11-start season with a 2.45 ERA.

    Lyles finished with a 5.36 ERA in 2018, along with a 7.02 ERA in 2020 and 5.15 last season. In other words, his current production is consistent with his career ERA of 5.16.

    The Twins needed a walk-off to beat the Orioles last night. Don’t expect it to come to that on Saturday afternoon. Look for the Twins to win by at least 2 runs to cover the runline.


    Orioles vs. Twins Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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