Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Pick – MLB July 17, 2022

The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays wrap up a three-game series and their first half of the season at the Trop on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore is coming off a 6-4 win after they were able to overcome a shaky performance from starter Dean Kremer.

Kremer ran into multiple jams on the mound last night. However, he was able to limit the damage after allowing 8 hits and 3 earned runs across 4 innings of work. The Rays couldn’t blow the game open, allowing the game to go into extra innings and a loss.

The Orioles can’t finish worse than .500 going into the All-Star Game. They have done wonderfully as of late to get to 46-45.

Baltimore was on a ten-game winning streak before a 6-4 loss on Friday night. The ten-game winning streak was their first multi-game streak since they won 13 straight in 1999.

This is impressive stuff from a team that didn’t expect to do much. There was certainly improvement expected, but getting this much attention probably wasn’t in the plans.

Maybe not this year, but the O’s should be on the postseason map in a year or two.

That’s if everything goes according to plan. It’s best not to get too overly invested in a hot run in July. Reaching the postseason this year is not going to be easy. They should be in the mix in the near future, though.

The Rays are 50-41 and 13 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. That’s good for second, but they dropped a spot after the Yanks blew out the Red Sox.

Jordan Lyles and Corey Kluber are on the docket for starts Sunday afternoon. Head below for our free Orioles vs. Rays prediction on July 17, 2022.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-160) +130 Over 7.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+135) -155 Under 7.5 (-110)
Team Data Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays
Overall Record 46-45 50-40
Away/Home Record 21-28 30-18
Batting Average .232 .240
Batting Average Away/Home .229 .234
Runs Per 9 4.26 4.22
Team ERA 3.92 3.35
Team ERA Away/Home 4.48 3.04

Orioles vs. Rays Prediction:

Jordan Lyles has been a different pitcher on the road and at home this season. Camden Yards isn’t an easy place to pitch, but Lyles has held up well on the mound in Baltimore.

Lyles has an ERA of 2.72 and a 1.33 WHIP at Camden Yards.

However, he has been unable to find the same success on the road. Lyles is going into the Trop with an ERA of 5.52 and a 1.42 WHIP in 62 innings on the road.

Lyles is coming off a couple of promising attempts at Target Field and Wrigley Field. He held the Twins to 1 earned run in 6.1 innings and then followed up with 2 earned runs against the Cubs in 7 innings.

In his previous three starts, Lyles has posted an ERA of 1.86 and a 1.03 WHIP. This hasn’t been consistent with his overall body of work.

It’s possible that Lyles goes off the rails at the Trop and reverts to his bad form.

After all, Lyles is a veteran with a 7.02 ERA and 5.15 ERA in his past two seasons. He has a career ERA of 5.14 and a 1.43 WHIP. In other words, I don’t know if Lyles recent effort is an indication of future success.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 9-1
  • 1-10 overall in their previous 11 games at Tampa Bay
  • 5-15 overall in their previous 15 games versus the Rays
  • 11-1 overall in their previous 12 games
  • OVER is 7-2 in their previous nine games versus the AL East
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games versus the American League


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 10-1 overall in their previous 11 games versus the Orioles at home
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games at home
  • 5-1 overall in their previous five games
  • OVER is 4-2 in their previous six games versus the Orioles
  • OVER is 9-3 in their previous 12 games versus the AL East

  • The Rays have gotten on base frequently against Lyles. They have a .394 OBP in 35 at-bats versus the veteran. Tampa scored 4 RBIs during that stretch.

    Corey Kluber has been in good shape with the Rays in his first season.

    The 36-year-old has an ERA of 3.58 and a 1.09 WHIP in 88 innings of work. He’s had more success at home, where Kluber owns a 3.07 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 44 innings.

    The Orioles are hitting .232 with a .310 OBP vs Kluber in 99 at-bats. They take on a hot Kluber, as he’s allowed just 2 earned runs through his previous 12 innings on the bump.

    I don’t have as much faith in Lyles staying hot as I do Kluber, especially at the Trop. Lyles hasn’t proven to be consistent in road settings this season. Following a close loss last night, expect the Rays to finish off the first half of the season with a win.


    Orioles vs. Rays Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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