A couple straight days of .500 ball now. I finished 1-1 on the site, and 2-2 in total. The Rangers/Red Sox over was the easiest bet of the day for me, as that cashed in the 4th inning. Needless to say I should have flipped flopped that pick with the Athletics/Brewers over that I posted yesterday. That was another bet that looked promising early on, with the Athletics exiting their first at bats of the game in the first with two runs. However, there wasn’t much offense to be had until near the end of the game when it was already too late. The Dodgers came from behind to give us a split, though. Hopefully you all ignored the first pick and came out on top with the Dodgers.
Free MLB Pick:
Toronto Blue Jays +100 at San Francisco Giants -120 (Total: 8)
R.A. Dickey (4-7, 5.18 ERA) vs. Barry Zito (4-3, 3.88 ERA)
There is too much value that is presenting itself in this matchup to ignore it. Barry Zito has pitched masterfully at home, perhaps even, the best home pitcher in baseball at the moment. Looking at his road numbers and then looking at his starts in San Francisco is quite a major difference. In what is one of the most lopsided differentiates among pitchers, Zito is 0-3 with a 10.19 ERA on the road, but at home he is 4-0 with a 1.40 ERA. It is hard to even believe that is the same guy on the mound. Among the staggering home numbers is a .292 OBP and spectacular WHIP of 1.13.
Another plus for Zito is that he doesn’t give him homeruns very often. He has only allowed four all season, two being at home. One thing the Blue Jays love to do is get their runs playing power baseball. They have a few sluggers on their roster that pose problems for the majority of pitchers in baseball, but Zito should have a solid start given his ability to keep the ball down and away from trouble. AT&T is difficult to go long on to begin with, and it should be even more troublesome against Zito. Another thing to keep in mind is the PED scandal that is making the rounds. With Melky Cabrera’s name being implicated in it, his mind may be elsewhere than baseball today.
Blue Jays’ R.A. Dickey is not at all what the Jays envisioned when they signed him to a big contract. Dickey and his knuckleball came onto the scene last year with the Mets, which was met dazzling results. This season has been a treacherous road in Canada. When a knuckleballer is on, they are on, and when they are off, they are way off. Think of fellow retired Tim Wakefield, he was nearly unhittable in his prime, but as he got older he was essentially tossing a changeup with a little bit of movement every throw. Hitters caught on, and crushed him into retirement. I kind of see the same thing with Dickey in a way. I realize Dickey hasn’t been a knuckleballer his whole career, but his arm is starting to deteriorate to the point that he is having trouble locating his pitches.
With a short line, there is just too much value to pass up on Zito at home against an overvalued pitcher in Dickey. Give me the Giants for Wednesday afternoon. Note that I said afternoon, as it is scheduled for 3:45EST.
Free Pick: San Francisco Giants -120
Baltimore Orioles -170 at Houston Astros +150 (Total: 9.5)
Freddy Garcia (2-2, 3.57 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 5.10)
Since my first pick was a day game, figured I would make a pick for later on at night as well. This pick is a total fade of the Houston Astros. After sweeping the Los Angeles Angels, I believe they are going to revert back to their old AAA ways. If they want to stay a respectable team, they are going to need to do it against a red hot pitcher, Freddy Garcia. It feels somewhat odd saying that Freddy Garcia is red hot, but it is what it is, and I’m going to back him here against the Astros during his winning stretch.
Garcia has a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts and magnificent WHIP of 0.89. He will look to continue his positive production against an Astros’ team that struggles against right handed pitchers. Conversely, Astros’ starter, Dallas Keuchel, is extremely vulnerable at this point in time. He had a poor ERA of 5.27 last year in his first year, and it appears he isn’t getting any better with a 5.10 heading into this one against the Orioles.
The Orioles bats were quiet for the most part last night, but they still managed to win by three runs, 4-1. I think they turn it up a notch against Keuchel and win this one rather comfortably behind Freddy Garcia. If it makes you feel more comfortable, the moneyline is a solid wager, too. But, I am going to go with the run line to cut down on the juice.
Free Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-110)