Yesterday I backed the Texas Rangers as road underdogs against the San Diego Padres. I loved being able to back Rangers starter Lance Lynn as a dog, as the guy has been light’s out in his year and a half stint with the Rangers and I felt that he was going to have a lot of success against the hard-hitting, but inconsistent, Padres.
San Diego starter Chris Paddack scared me a bit, as he does of ace level stuff when he is on his game, but at the end of the day, I saw this game as a straight-up coin flip type of a game, and if you are going to give me +125 on a coin flip, I am going to take it every time.
Manny being Manny.
The king stay the king. 👑 pic.twitter.com/b0QFVA0vYZ
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 20, 2020
And you can’t have much more of an evenly matched game than one that ends up in extra innings! These teams needed extra frames to decide a winner, and when Texas loaded the bases with no outs in the top of the tenth inning, I felt that we were in a great spot to cash our underdog bet. But unfortunately, the Rangers only managed to plate one run in the tenth and hit the bottom of the inning with a scant one-run lead.
The Padres struck quickly in the tenth as they loaded up the bases with one out. The Rangers were clinging to their one-run lead until Manny Machado cleared the bases with a walk-off grand slam. It was a particularly painful way to lose after such a competitive game. What can you do, after watching the game, my assertion that it was indeed a coin flip of a game was right, and the variance just didn’t break our way. For today’s daily betting pick, we will head to Baltimore, where the Orioles host the Boston Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox (7-18) at Baltimore Orioles (12-12)
The Baltimore Orioles are looking to snap a four-game losing streak tonight as they host the Boston Red Sox in game one of a four-game series. If the season were to end today, the Orioles would snag the final playoff spot in the American League, and the O’s had won seven out of their previous eight games before this four-game skid.
For Boston, the Red Sox won last night against the Philadelphia Phillies, snapping an MLB worst nine-game losing streak. Despite the win yesterday, the Red Sox still have the worst record in the American League, and their -49-run differential is the worst in all of baseball.
Starting tonight for the Red Sox is Nathan Eovaldi (1-2 5.93 ERA), and for the Orioles, it is Asher Wojciechowski (1-2 4.34 ERA). The game total over/under is set at ten runs. The Red Sox are -145 road favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 4:35 PM PST from Camden Yards in Baltimore.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are awful right now. They can’t pitch, and their lineup just isn’t producing enough runs to keep them competitive in most games. What is even more shocking about the Red Sox AL worst, 18 losses, is that 16 of those eight losses have come by multiple runs. This team isn’t just losing, they are getting blown out on a daily basis.
Rafael Devers came into this season looking like an AL MVP candidate. But he came out of the gates very slow in 2020. Heading into the Red Sox last series with the Phillies, Devers was hitting an abysmal .183 with just two homes runs and five RBI. But things are looking up for Devers after this two-game set against Philly as he had six hits in the two games, including two doubles, a home run, and four RBI. If Boston has any shot at winning games in the second half, they need Devers to get hot and stay hot.
Nathan Eovaldi (1-2 5.93 ERA)
With Chris Sale gone, David Price gone, and Eduardo Rodriguez gone, that leaves Nathan Eovaldi as the “ace” of this Red Sox pitching staff. That is a really bad spot for Boston, as Eovaldi is far from an ace level pitcher. Last year for Boston, Eovaldi split time between the bullpen and the rotation he posted an ERA of nearly six runs and got hammered for 16 home runs in only 67.2 innings pitched.
This year, Eovaldi looked decent in his first two starts as he pitched a combined eleven innings and allowed just three earned runs. But here in August, he has really struggled as he has made three starts and has an 8.27 ERA to show for it. In his last start, he got obliterated by the New York Yankees, giving up eight earned run and allowing three homers.
Are the Baltimore Orioles a good baseball team? My brain tells me no, but my heart says that they just might have enough gas in the tank to find their way to the postseason, despite not having much talent on the roster. Baltimore is currently sitting at 12-12 and are in third place in the AL East. Some of the teams that we all thought would be playoff contenders this season are struggling, and that leaves the door open for Baltimore to sneak into the postseason.
The Toronto Blue Jays are 10-11, the Texas Rangers are 10-13, and the Los Angeles Angels are 8-17. It’s looking like the AL Central has one of those two AL wild card spots all but locked up, as the White Sox, Twins, and Indians are all playing well. That leaves one playoff spot left for teams like the Orioles, Rangers, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Angels to fight over. And right now, Baltimore has the best record of the bunch.
Asher Wojciechowski (1-2 4.34 ERA)
Asher Wojciechowski was a first-round draft pick way back in 2010 and took a very strange route to being a regular in the Major Leagues. He first cracked a big league roster with the Houston Astros in 2015, but has spent time with the Orioles, Blue Jays, Marlins, DBacks, Reds, White Sox, and Indians, before heading back for his second stint with the Orioles, and getting a chance to play for the O’s last year, making 16 starts.
This year, Wojciechowski has gotten a chance to pitch every fifth day and has been serviceable. The New York Yankees hit him hard, but they hit everyone hard, and besides that one start, he has been decent. In August, he has made three starts, the Orioles have won two of them, and his ERA is 3.29. Those aren’t superstar numbers by any means, but he is giving his team a chance to win games.
Who Do I Like?
How is it possible that the Boston Red Sox are big road favorites right now? This team has been consistently awful all season long, and it just doesn’t make any sense that they are laying this kind of wood against anybody, let alone against a Baltimore team that is currently in position to make the playoffs.
I think we can all appreciate that this Baltimore team probably won’t be able to make the postseason, but they are 9-9 in August, and that looks a heck of a lot better than the Red Sox 4-13 mark this month. I have absolutely zero confidence in Boston right now, as they look to have given up on the year and am shocked that they are still being given so much respect in the betting market.
This bet is a straight fade of the Boston Red Sox. I faded them earlier this week at even money and mentioned in my pick that if you see them at even money or as favorites against anybody right now, that you should strongly consider getting on the other side. I am going to take my own advice in this game, and back the Orioles.
I don’t have much more confidence in Baltimore than I do in Boston, but Eovaldi stinks, and I think Baltimore can do enough to protect their home ballpark and pick up a win today. Give me the Baltimore Orioles tonight at home as home dogs, getting +125!