We ran our winning streak to six straight days last night, but man did they make us sweat it out! Yesterday we picked up a money line underdog winner when we backed the San Diego Padres, in Colorado, against the Rockies. I felt that the line was a gross overreaction to the Rockies hot start, and that based on both respective team’s roster talent, that the Padres should have easily been the favorites. So, I fired on the bad line and hoped that the variance wouldn’t sting me.
Things didn’t start out well for us, as the Rockies got two runs in the first inning, and after a back and forth game, we hit the ninth inning down a run and needing a rally. Cue Rockies closer Wade Davis. I don’t get to say this enough, but God Bless Wade Davis!
Wade has been exactly what you want in a closer as a handicapper. When he was at his best with the Kansas City Royals, he slammed the door on every game he played, making it easy to back his teams and not worry about a late-game comeback spoiling a winning wager.
And now that he is at his worst? I wasn’t even remotely worried that the Padres weren’t going to find a way to tie the game up against Davis in the ninth last night, as the guy is just awful now. Even when they were down to their final out, I still felt like our bet had value.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 1, 2020
And when Fernando Tatis Jr blasted a homer with two outs in the ninth to tie the game, I once again said my quiet thanks to Wade Davis, for being the absolute worst. Davis went on to get hammered for four runs in the innings, and despite a little sweat in the bottom of the ninth, when Padres closer Kirby Yates had to be pulled before he too, blew a save, San Diego won the game, and we cashed an underdog ticket. Feels good to run good! Today we set out in search of more value as we head to New York, where the Yankees host the Boston Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox (3-5) at New York Yankees (5-1)
The New York Yankees have the best record in baseball right now, despite having played fewer games than most other teams, due to some Corona Virus game cancelations. New York picked up another win, to run their record to 5-1, last night against the Boston Red Sox, in their 2020 home opener. The Yankees are looking for the series win tonight in game two of the three-game set with the Bo Sox.
For Boston, the Red Sox’s season has started off as most expected it would, entering the season, with lots of runs hitting the board in most games, but not many wins piling up for Boston. The Red Sox are just 3-5 on the year and must find a way to win games like this one tonight against the Yankees, if they want a realistic shot at competing in the American League East Division.
Starting for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka (0-0 0.00 ERA), and for Boston, it is Zack Godley (0-0 0.00 ERA). The game total over/under is set at ten runs. The Yankees are -182 home field favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 PM PST from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have lost their three best starters from last year’s team, and they are certainly feeling it right now. Boston has allowed the highest batting average against of any team in the game, a blistering .274, and they are near the bottom of every major pitching statistic.
In game one of the series last night, the Yankees chased Boston starter, Ryan Weber, out of the game in the fourth inning, as they racked up four hits, two of them home runs, and drew four walks, while scoring three runs. It was already the fourth time this season that a Red Sox starter didn’t make it past the fourth inning. It is hard to be much more confident in their starter tonight, as the Red Sox will start Zack Godley, a guy they brought in during the offseason, to work out of the bullpen.
Zack Godley (0-0 0.00 ERA)
Zack Godley has had times in his career where he looked like he was going to be a serviceable middle of the rotation inning eater in the big leagues. He even had one season, coming back in 2017 with the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he looked like he could be a reliable starter. But then the wheels fell off for Godley.
After losing double-digit games with an ERA of nearly five runs in 2018, the DBacks decided to use Godley out of the bullpen last year, and it did not go well, to say the least. In 27 appearances, only 9 of those coming as starts, Godley posted a sky-high 6.39 ERA. That earned him his ticket out of town, as he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline.
He was decent in a six-game stint with Toronto working in relief, and that earned him his shot to sign with Boston this year. In his lone appearance of the season, Godley was actually solid, as he tossed four shutout innings against the New York Mets.
New York Yankees
On paper, no team in the American League has the talent that the New York Yankees have. One way to evaluate just how talented of a roster the Bronx Bombers have this year, is to look at the guys that aren’t playing. This team is so deep that they don’t have an everyday spot for Miguel Andujar, a guy that has All-Star level potential and looked significantly better than fellow rookie and now superstar Gleyber Torres, in 2018.
Other stars like Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Brett Gardner have all already taken days off as the Yankees just don’t have enough spots on the field for all of their studs. It is no surprise that the Yankees are playing better, than any other team in the game, as are better, than any other team in the game.
Masahiro Tanaka (0-0 0.00 ERA)
It is hard to put your finger on just how good Masahiro Tanaka is going to be in 2020. He is the most all over the place starting pitcher in the American League if you ask me. Sometimes he is outstanding and nearly unhittable. We saw that highlighted in his rookie season when he was an All-Star, and we saw that again in 2017 when he nearly won the American League Cy Young Award.
But other times, he can be absolutely terrible. We saw that last year in his three starts against the Boston Red Sox. Against Boston in 2019, Tanaka gave up, get this, 22 earned runs in only eight innings pitched! 22! That is an ERA of 24.75.
Who Do I Like?
If you think maybe Tanaka’s struggles against Boston last year were a fluke, all you need to do is look back to 2018, and you will see he got hammered by Boston then as well, as his 7.58 ERA against the Red Sox in four starts, was the highest ERA of any team he pitched against where he made more than one start.
The only American League team that Tanaka has been worse against in his career than the Red Sox, has been the Houston Astros, and the 23 home runs he has allowed in his career against Boston, are the most he has given up to any team. Do not expect Tanaka to be good tonight.
So, we know that New York can crush the ball. Giancarlo Stanton is reminding people why he is one of the best power hitters we have ever seen so far in 2020, as he is slashing at a .421 clip, and DJ Le Mahieu, a guy that nearly won the AL batting title in his first season with New York last year, is hitting an even hotter .455. And we know that Tanaka is going to get roughed up. What does that tell me? That lots of runs are hitting the board tonight in the Bronx.
This one goes over, and potentially WAY over. Tanaka always gets blasted by the Red Sox, and Zack Godley won’t have anything for New York on the mound. Godley’s biggest struggle has always been walks, as he loves handing out free passes and getting himself into jams. If he allows New York to stack the bases with base runners, he is going to regret it tonight. Give me the over ten runs, and let me pick up some free money tonight, as this game is going to be explosive!