Sometimes you just really nail a pick. That is what happened yesterday when I took the Seattle Mariners on the run line against the Toronto Blue Jays. I liked what James Paxton had done in his last start, and I mentioned that I expected him to completely shut the Blue Jays boom or bust offense down. Well, to say he shut them down would be an understatement, he went out and threw a no-hitter! It was just the sixth no-no in Seattle Mariners history.
Obviously, you can never predict a guy to throw a no-hitter, but Paxton had a shot at the all-time strikeout mark in his previous start, he had sixteen K’s through seven innings, and he has officially heated up. We were able to back Paxton and the Mariners on the run line and cashed out a jumbo +135 payout. It was a great spot that turned out to be very profitable. Today we look at another spot where we are looking for a plus money payout when the Boston Red Sox play the New York Yankees.
The Boston Red Sox are in the Bronx Wednesday for game two of a three-game series with their hated rivals, the New York Yankees. The Yankees took game one last night 3-2, powered by a two-home run night from Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees are the major leagues hottest team as they have won sixteen out of seventeen games. Boston is tied with New York for the best record in all of baseball and had won three straight games before last night’s loss.
Starting tonight for New York is Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka (4-2 4.39 ERA), and for the Red Sox, they will look to Rick Porcello (5-0 2.14 ERA). The Yankees are -138 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 PM PST from Yankee Stadium in New York City.
This recent run of success by the New York Yankees is very impressive. But when you take a deeper look, you can start to see just how impressive it really is. They swept the Cleveland Indians, the Los Angeles Angels, and the Minnesota Twins during this streak and took series against the Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros.
All of those teams either made the playoffs last year or are in a position to make them this year. This team is playing the absolute best of the best in the American League, and they are mowing through them. However, tonight’s starter Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t been quite as consistent as the rest of his team this year.
Tanaka has had his ups and down so far to start the season. At times he has looked great, like when he pitched six and a third shutout innings against the Minnesota Twins. Other times, he has gotten pounded. In consecutive starts in early April, Tanaka got touched up for thirteen runs in just ten innings of work. One of those starts where he got roughed up? Against the Boston Red Sox where he got hammered for seven runs in just five innings, his worst outing of the year.
Rick Porcello is having a resurgent year. Last year Porcello struggled all season long, and many wondered what had happened. In 2016 Porcello was the best pitcher in the American League and took home the Cy Young Award with a 22-4 record and a 3.15 ERA, so his struggles last year were a bit unexpected. This year looks like a repeat of his 2016 campaign as Porcello is really racking up the wins.
Porcello has a 5-0 record with a 2.14 ERA. The Red Sox are 6-1 when Porcello starts, and he has given up one earned run or fewer in four of his seven starts. The most runs he has given up in any start has been three, this guy is really dialed in right now.
It is really hard to pick against a team that is playing as well as the New York Yankees are right now. They are plowing through the competition and look just about unbeatable. But, they are going to have to lose at some point, and I think it is tonight against Boston. The Red Sox have held the best record in the majors from basically opening day.
So, while New York is hot right now, I don’t really think they are the better team. Boston has been winning at a high rate all year long, and it has taken this crazy winning streak from New York for them just to pull even with Boston. So, I don’t think I am getting the worst team tonight.
And when you look at the starting pitching matchup, I feel that Rick Porcello is the better of the two. Both pitchers are capable of being great, but it feels like Porcello could win another Cy Young Award with the way he is pitching right now, and I am pretty surprised to see that we can back him at such an attractive price.
So, I will take the Boston Red Sox and some fairly significant dog money tonight and feel like this game is even at best and might even be slightly in our favor based on the starting pitching matchup. The Red Sox jumped all over Tanaka already this year, and it wouldn’t shock me to see them do it again tonight. Oh, and in Porcello’s one start against New York this year? He pitched seven shutout innings, and the Red Sox won the game. Give me the Boston Red Sox on the road at +118!