Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres MLB Pick – August 24th

I mentioned yesterday in my pick that I didn’t think the Toronto Blue Jays should be favored against anybody at this point, especially on the road. So, when I saw them as road favorites against the Seattle Mariners, who were debuting their prized pitching prospect, Justus Sheffield, I jumped all over Seattle. Throw in the fact that Toronto had lost five straight games, and the Mariners had won their last three series, and it felt like a great value spot.

The game itself was an exciting back and forth affair that saw Toronto rough up Sheffield and jump out to an early 2-0 lead. The M’s showed a lot of heart and battled back into the game and took control of the contest with a three-run sixth inning. In the end, Seattle came away with the 7-4 victory, and we picked up yet another underdog winner.

After a slow start to August we have officially caught fire here recently as last night we picked up our eighth winner in our last ten bets. And this hasn’t been a case of laying a bunch of wood and backing favorites every night. Of our eight winnings bets, six of them have come as either even money or on underdogs. We will look to stay hot tonight as we head to San Diego, where the Padres host the Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox are in San Diego Saturday for game two of a three-game set against the Padres. The Red Sox dominated game one last night, picking up the 11-0 victory. Eduardo Rodriguez completely shut the Padres down all night long as he tossed seven shutout innings. And J.D. Martinez provided the firepower as he exploded for a three-hit night, two of which left the park, and seven RBI.

The Red Sox are desperately trying to stay in the hunt for the second wild card in the American League and currently trail the Cleveland Indians and the Oakland Athletics by six and a half games for the final playoff spot in the league. The defending World Series champs have won six out of their last eight games and need to find a way to pick up a big win tonight against an underachieving Padres team.

For San Diego, the Padres have lost three straight games and seven out of their last eleven. This team is trying to find a way to live without rookie sensation Fernando Tatis Jr, who is injured and is likely to miss the rest of the season. The Padres have certainly been disappointing this season, but they would love to play spoiler tonight at home.

Starting for the Red Sox is Nathan Eovaldi (1-0 6.69 ERA), and for the Padres it is Dinelson Lamet (2-2 3.95 ERA). The game total over-under is set at eight and a half runs. The Red Sox are -119 road favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 5:40 PM PST from PETCO Park in San Diego.

What a difference a year makes for Nathan Eovaldi. Last season, he was the hero of the Red Sox championship run. This season he has battled injuries and inconsistency all season long. After starting the season in the starting rotation, he posted weak results before getting hurt and missing several months of action.

Boston brought him back in late July to be a middle relief man in the bullpen, and again he really struggled to stay consistent. Now with Chris Sale going down for the remainder of the season, Eovaldi is being asked to rejoin the starting rotation, and Boston needs him to once again be a hero and help carry this team to the postseason.

It will be interesting to see how well Eovaldi pitches tonight against a Padres team that is really struggling to score runs with Tatis out of the lineup. The Padres are averaging just over three runs a game since Tatis got hurt.

Dinelson Lamet is starting to really make a name for himself this year for San Diego. The second-year man out of the Dominican Republic has shown some flashes of being quite good in limited work this season. He tossed a gem against the Seattle Mariners in early August where he ended up pitching seven innings and allowing no runs.

But the flashes of success have been just that, flashes, as he hasn’t been able to stay consistent enough to really be trusted. His ERA was over five runs in five July starts, but he has been much better here in August as his ERA is just 2.50 in three appearances. The big problem for Lamet is that he just doesn’t get deep into games, as he has pitched five innings or fewer in six out of his last eight starts. And he will certainly have his hands full tonight against a Boston team that is second in the majors in runs scored and on-base percentage, and first in batting average.

While I have been somewhat impressed with what Dinelson Lamet has done in his last couple of starts, I think he is in for a rude awakening tonight against this hard-hitting Boston squad. Shutting down the lowly Seattle Mariners doesn’t prove to me that you can handle a lineup like the one Boston will use tonight.

While I don’t think Lamet will be as bad as Chris Paddack was yesterday for San Diego, Paddack got blasted for six runs in just two and a third innings of work, I do think he will give up multiple runs. Nathan Eovaldi is certainly a wild card that is hard to predict, but something tells me he finds a way to shut down this Padres team that just can’t score runs right now.

I have been preaching all season long that many causal bettors put too much emphasis on a game’s starting pitching matchup. With how all over the place Eovaldi has been this season, and with Lamet pitching well recently, I could see a case being made that Lamet is the better side of this starting pitching matchup. But one case that can’t be denied is the fact that the Red Sox are the far superior overall team.

Boston has had their fair share of ups and downs this year, but even then, they still have ten more wins than the Padres. And to be completely honest, this team has nearly all of their roster from last year’s World Championship team, and I think they find a way to back door into the playoffs before it is all said and done.

And to do that, they are going to have find a way to beat teams like the Padres tonight. And that is just what I think will happen. I normally prefer to bet underdogs as I love the bigger payouts, but in a spot like this one where I feel the favorite is being undervalued, I don’t mind laying a little wood if the price is right. Give me the Boston Red Sox tonight in game two from San Diego, laying -119!

The Bet: Boston Red Sox -119

My Pick
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL