Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays MLB Pick – August 9th

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox in game three of a three-game series today in Toronto. Boston has pounded the Blue Jays for ten runs in each of the first two games of the series enroot to a two games to none series lead. The Red Sox welcomed back third basemen Rafael Devers to the lineup yesterday after he missed several games with a strained hamstring, and he immediately made his presence known as he picked up two hits, one of which was a home run.

Starting tonight for the Red Sox is recent Cy Young Award winner, Rick Porcello (14-4 3.84 ERA) and for the Blue Jays, it is rookie Ryan Borucki (1-2 2.30 ERA). The Red Sox are -152 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at nine and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:07 PM PST from the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

The Boston Red Sox are just on another level right now. They are the best team in the Major Leagues and are on pace to have a shot at the all-time major league’s wins record of  116 games by the 2001 Seattle Mariners. They have won six straight games, including a sweep of the New York Yankees in their last series and they will look for the sweep tonight in game three against the Blue Jays.

The Red Sox have won twenty-five out of their last thirty-one games. Despite having the Yankees in their division, the team with the third most wins in the majors, the Red Sox still hold a nine-game division lead, the second largest division lead in all of baseball. I am not sure what it is going to take to slow this team down, but right now they just can’t seem to lose and are the prohibitive favorites to win the World Series.

Tonight’s starter for Boston, Rick Porcello, has been the recipient of a lot of run support this season. And coupled with his solid results, he is really racking up the wins. His fourteen wins are only one behind the American League leader, New York Yankees star Luis Severino. Porcello hasn’t always needed all that run support though as he has pitched very well at times this year.

We saw that in his last start, where Porcello threw a complete game and allowed just one run on just one hit to the New York Yankees. The Red Sox are 16-7 in his starts this season. The Red Sox aren’t just beating teams when Porcello pitches, they are blowing them out. Boston has the second highest run differential in the majors this season at +199 runs. In the sixteen games Boston has won this year with Porcello on the mound, they have won by at least two runs in thirteen of them.

While the Red Sox are starting a former Cy Young Award winner tonight in game three, the Blue Jays are starting a guy that just picked up his first MLB win in his last start in Ryan Borucki. The twenty-four-year-old rookie has acquitted himself mostly well in his seven career starts, all coming this season. He is 1-2 with a 2.30 ERA since being called up on June 26th. Borucki has really only struggled once so far in his short MLB career, and it was against, who else, but the Boston Red Sox on July 13th.

In that start, Borucki got hammered for seven runs in just three innings of work. It will be interesting to see what the rookie can do tonight against this Boston team that is beating the cover off the ball recently. The Sox have scored double-digit runs four times in the last two weeks.

I feel bad for what this Red Sox lineup is going to do to Ryan Borucki tonight. The kid has some good stuff and a lot of upside with a bright future ahead of him, but that isn’t going to help him tonight. The Red Sox have scored ten runs in both of the first two games of this series, and it wouldn’t shock me to see them hang double digits up on the scoreboard again tonight. They are just too hot and too good not to smash a rookie pitcher.

Boston is first in the majors in batting average, runs scored, and slugging percentage this year. They blow out good teams. They are going to really enjoy this soft matchup tonight in Toronto to a Blue Jays team that has lost ten out of their last fifteen games and are in freefall after moving a couple of their best players at the trade deadline.

When I look at the money line it is fairly steep, but still, clearly the side to be on. And when I look at the run line, I am shocked to see that we can get a very attractive +100 on Boston, laying a run and a half. As I mentioned above, the Red Sox have covered the run line in thirteen of Porcello’s sixteen wins this season. I see that happening again tonight. Porcello loves to pitch with a lead, and I see Boston jumping all over Borucki tonight just like they did when they faced him a month ago.

Boston wins this game, and they win it big. Give me the Boston Red Sox laying a run and a half on the run line at +100 tonight as they go for the sweep in Toronto!

The Bet: Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs at +100


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