Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians MLB Betting Pick – July 28

The Cleveland Guardians will look to continue their winning ways as they wrap up a four-game series against the fading Boston Red Sox. The BoSox were bad entering the All-Star break and have come out of it faring even worse. Their defense and pitching has sunk them, and while injuries remain a key concern, with the Red Sox now falling to last in the AL East, they’ve gone from contenders to sellers in less than a month.

Cleveland remains firmly in the hunt for the AL Wild-Card, and can even track down Minnesota in the Central division. The Guardians have been surging recently and with them entering Thursday night winning seven of their past ten, they’re now just 1.5 games back of the division-leading Twins. Another decisive victory over the BoSox would set them up well heading into the trade deadline.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Guardians: Triston McKenzie (7-6, 3.11 ERA, .98 WHIP, 100 strikeouts); Red Sox: Kutter Crawford (2-3, 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 48 strikeouts)

Expect Triston McKenzie to again be very solid for Cleveland, as the young flame-thrower has performed and met his high expectations all season long. Behind Shane Bieber, this tandem has formed an impressive one-two punch and spurred their rally to the playoffs. He’s given up just one earned run over 26 innings in July, and enters Thursday as the hottest pitcher in baseball.

His opponent will be Boston’s young thrower in Kutter Crawford, who in his brief stint in the big leagues has battled with consistency issues. While he’s been doing well with strikeouts, he’s been plagued by control and hard-hit rates in recent outings. He’s now had back-to-back sub-par outings, and could struggle against a hot-hitting and speedy Cleveland lineup.

Though these teams don’t play all that often, the games only continue to get increasingly important for both rosters – especially as we close in on the deadline and pennant races. For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for the final game of this entertaining Cleveland/Boston series. Enjoy the game, folks!

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

Spread:
  • Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+130)
  • Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-150)
Moneyline:
  • Cleveland Guardians (-125)
  • Boston Red Sox (+105)
Total:
  • Over 9 (-110)
  • Under 9 (-110)
TEAM DATA GUARDIANS RED SOX
Overall Record 50-47 49-50
Over/Under/Push 47-44-6 45-45-9
Home/Away Record 25-28 24-25
Runs Per Game 4.5 4.6
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.4 4.3
Team Batting Average .249 .254
Bullpen ERA 3.09 3.99

Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction:

With the Guardians looking for another decisive series win, they’ve got to be feeling good having the red-hot McKenzie on the bump for Thursday’s matchup. He’s been elite in July and has almost single-handedly revived his team’s playoff chances.

On the other side, it’s hard to imagine backing this Boston team at virtually any price. They’ve been dismal in all facets of late, and haven’t dealt well with some crippling injuries. Both Chris Sale and Rafael Devers remain injured, and as such the BoSox pitching and hitting has plummeted in recent outings.

McKenzie should continue his dominance on Thursday night, and he’s been prolific at generating a ton of swings and misses. He’s been racking up huge K’s of late, and against a Boston team that has been striking out a lot since the All-Star break, expect McKenzie to again push for double-digit numbers.

Crawford meanwhile should continue with his struggles. He too has proven to be an effective strikeout pitcher, but that is a bad matchup against a Cleveland offense that prides itself on making contact, and putting the ball in play. In fact, the Guardians’ bats strikeout the least amount in all of baseball, and look for them to make contact and put some real pressure on an error-prone BoSox infield.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Trends To Know:

  • Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
  • Guardians are 4-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
  • Guardians are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a loss.
  • Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 Thursday games.

With the BoSox banged up and continuing their tumble down the standings, look for their misery to continue with one of the game’s hottest pitchers in Triston McKenzie making his Fenway debut.  The flame-thrower matches up very well against the strikeout-prone and error-prone BoSox, and a speedy and versatile Guardians’ offense should compound the issues of Boston’s Kutter Crawford.  At a generous favourite price, look for Cleveland to secure another series victory on Thursday evening.

Our Pick
Guardians
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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