Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 6 Pick – MLB October 22, 2021

Game 6 of the ALCS is on Friday night at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. The Astros can close the Red Sox out with a win this evening at home.

If a Game 7 is required, then that matchup will take place in Houston at Minute Maid Park as well. Unless the Red Sox win two straight in Houston, they won’t be playing another game at Fenway Park this season.

The Red Sox had a 2-1 series lead, but have been losers in back-to-back games to set up a must-win situation tonight.

In their most recent loss, the Astros pulled away for a convincing 9-1 victory on Wednesday. Framber Valdez was impressive through 8 innings, as he allowed 3 hits and 1 earned run.

All the Astros needed was Ryne Stanek to pitch an inning to close out the Astros. Only needing one reliever is a big plus for an Astros team that is going to have a fresh bullpen for Friday night.

They had the day off yesterday, and only had Stanek on the bump out of the bullpen on Wednesday. Valdez gets a lot of credit for putting the bullpen in good shape for Game 6.

Chris Sale did all he could to keep the Astros at bay in Game 5. Sale lasted 5.1 innings with 3 hits and 1 earned run allowed.

It was a good look for Sale, who has been inconsistent. That loss can’t be blamed on Sale. Ryan Brasier allowed 3 hits and 2 earned runs in 0.2 frames, and Martin Perez gave up 2 hits and 2 earned runs in an inning.

It was a big win for the Astros, as they now have two chances at Minute Maid to win and go to the World Series. They’d like that to happen on Friday night without any need for a Game 7 tomorrow.

The Astros are expected to send Luis Garcia to the bump in this one. In a do-or-die situation, the Red Sox are giving Nathan Eovaldi the starting call. Head below for our free Red Sox vs. Astros pick on October 22, 2021.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-195) +100 Under 9 (-103)
Houston Astros -1.5 (+170) -110 Over 9 (-117)
Team Data Boston Red Sox Houston Astros
Overall Record 98-74 101-70
Away/Home Record 45-40 54-31
Batting Average .260 .265
Batting Average Away/Home .245 .264
Runs Per 9 5.34 5.52
Team ERA 4.31 3.84
Team ERA Away/Home 4.03 3.63

Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction:

Luis Garcia gives the Red Sox a chance to end this series and go to the World Series on Friday night. However, if he’s going to pitch like he has been in the postseason, then the Red Sox could very well force a Game 7.

Garcia has made two appearances in the postseason and he was in rough shape. Going into this evening, Garia has recorded an ERA of 24.55 and a 3.55 WHIP across 3.2 innings. In his most recent attempt, the Red Sox chased Garcia out of the game after allowing 5 earned runs in 1 inning.

The good news for the Astros is that Garcia is a much better pitcher than what has been demonstrated in the postseason. He was reliable during the regular season with a 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. In nine of his last ten attempts in the regular season, Garcia didn’t give up more than 3 runs.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Betting Trends:

Red Sox

  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 6-12 overall in their previous 18 games versus the Astros
  • 15-5 overall in their previous 20 games in October
  • 15-7 overall in their previous 22 games on a Friday
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games after a loss
  • OVER is 10-1-1 in their previous 12 games versus the AL West
  • OVER is 5-1-1 in their previous seven ALCS games on the road


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 8-3 overall in their previous 11 games
  • 5-2 overall in their previous seven ALCS games at Minute Maid Park
  • 58-20 overall in their previous 78 games after a day off
  • 6-2 overall in their previous eight games after their opponent scores 2 or fewer runs

Garcia has typically helped up well against the Red Sox in his career. They were hitting .208 with a .250 OBP in 23 at-bats before he had problems a few days ago. Along with a .208 average, the Red Sox hadn’t had a home run or RBI against Garcia.

He’s been a better pitcher at home with an ERA of 2.39 and a 1.01 WHIP at Minute Maid as opposed to a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the road. Before getting hammered in the postseason, Garcia had an ERA of 2.20 in his last three starts of the regular season.

Nathan Eovaldi has struggled mightily versus the Astros. They are hitting .370 with a .392 OBP through 67 at-bats against him. He’s conceded 3 home runs and 9 RBIs during that time. Jose Altuve has gone deep on Eovaldi three times in 16 at-bats.

In four games in the postseason, Eovaldi has been below average with a 5.51 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 16.1 innings of work. That’s up from a 3.75 ERA in the regular season. With a win separating the Astros and the World Series, expect them to proceed to the next round with a win.


Red Sox vs. Astros Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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