Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Pick – June 28

A big series in terms of AL East supremacy continues on Tuesday night north of the border as the Boston Red Sox will look to bounce back against the Toronto Blue Jays, in a matchup that is sure to hold playoff implications down the line.

The Jays throttled the BoSox Monday night, on the backs of some power hitting and excellent pitching from Kevin Gausman. Boston looked lost at the plate, and couldn’t take advantage of a weakened Toronto bullpen.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Red Sox: Michael Wacha (6-1, 2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 48 strikeouts); Blue Jays: Ross Stripling (4-2, 3.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 43 strikeouts)

Tonight Boston will look to bounce back in a matchup that pits two veteran pitchers both having renaissance seasons. For Boston, Michael Wacha will take the bump. The former Cardinal pitcher has been elite this season, keeping batters off-balance with excellent precision and variety. Against a red-hot Toronto offense, he’ll definitely get another stern test on Tuesday night at the Rogers Centre.

The Jays have had some pitching issues of late, but reliever turned starter Ross Stripling is definitely not one of them. The former Dodger has been effectively stretched out and provided excellent depth to the Jays, during a time where they need it most. Losing Hyun-Jin Ryu, and awful showings of late from both Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, has put this Toronto rotation in crisis. Stripling is similar in make-up to his Tuesday night counterpart, Michael Wacha, which makes this showdown even more intriguing.

Both of these teams are firmly ones to watch as we approach the mid-season mark of another thrilling MLB season. Can the BoSox continue their torrid pace into a wild-card spot? Or will the hot-hitting, hometown Jays offense bring Michael Wacha back down to reality? Continue reading on beneath the odds, data, and trends for our official betting pick on the Jays vs. Red Sox June 28th. Enjoy!

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

Spread:
  • Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
  • Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
Moneyline:
  • Boston Red Sox (+115)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
Total:
  • Over 9.5 (-110)
  • Under 9.5 (-110)
TEAM DATA RED SOX BLUE JAYS
Overall Record 42-32 41-32
Over/Under/Push 28-37-9 39-33-1
Home/Away Record 22-16 22-14
Runs Per Game 4.8 4.7
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.0 4.4
Team Batting Average .261 .255
Bullpen ERA 3.71 4.32

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction:

Despite a tough showing in the series opener, don’t count out the BoSox just yet. They’ve played exceptional baseball of late, and statistically profile as the better team than the Jays. Michael Wacha has turned back the clock in 2022, and the veteran right-hander enters with a 2.34 ERA. He’s already faced Toronto earlier in the season, only conceding four hits across six innings.

RED HOT RED SOX

While there’s been a ton of talk of late about Toronto’s offense, it’s actually the Boston attack that enters in better form. They’re first in baseball in terms of batting average, and sit top-five in both runs and OPS as well. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Trevor Story are all raking right now, with Devers a clear candidate for an AL MVP nomination.

The hard-hitting and contact of the BoSox could spell trouble for Ross Stripling on Tuesday night. While the veteran has secured some great results of late, his 6.1% barrel rate remains a key concern. And though Toronto’s numbers at the plate have been better of late, they’ve typically struggled against crafty throwers with low velocity. Wacha fits that profile, and could stymie the front-end of Toronto’s batting order – although Jays’ catcher Alejandro Kirk continues his torrid pace.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Trends To Know:

  • The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst of the day.
  • Trevor Story is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Toronto (#3-worst of all teams today).
  • Red Sox are 12-1 in their last 13 games following a loss.
  • Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
  • Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 overall.

Expect a much tighter game than the series opener on Monday night. Both pitchers should get the better of their countering offenses, though it’s the Red Sox lineup balance that gives them the edge over a beleaguered Jays’ bullpen.  With injuries and inability, Toronto’s relievers are in the midst of a prolonged slump.  Expect Boston to pull out a win in the late innings, and back the BoSox on a nice underdog price.

Our Pick
Red Sox
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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