Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets MLB Pick – Friday, August 23rd

A busy Friday night of MLB action leaves us with plenty of different choices for this evening’s featured pick. Our focus has been drawn to a National League East battle between two of the hottest clubs in baseball, both of which are riding five-game winning streaks as they get set for tonight’s tilt.

The Atlanta Braves will spend the weekend in New York for a three-game set with the Mets. The visitors hold a big lead in the division, and this will be the last time these two squads hook up until late September. Said another way, the hosts aim to take advantage of the opportunity to make up some ground, while the visitors hope to pad the lead even further.

An interesting pitching matchup has led oddsmakers to mute the projected run total for tonight’s affair. We’ll begin our breakdown of this matchup by taking a look at where the current odds stand.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets, 7:10 PM EST, MLBN

Spread:

  • Atlanta +1 ½ (-135)
  • NY Mets -1 ½ (+115)
Money line:

  • Atlanta +160
  • NY Mets -170
Total Points:

  • Over 7.5 (-116)
  • Under 7.5 (-104)

Betting odds provided by Sportsbetting.ag

Braves vs. Mets Pick:

The Braves were home for the early part of the week sweeping a three-game series over the Miami Marlins. They outscored the visitors by a combined 13-3 for the set, including a 3-2 win in the finale. Ronald Acuna Jr. smacked an RBI single in the bottom of the 9th inning to seal the deal.

The Mets also opened up the week at home. They played host to the Cleveland Indians for a three-game interleague set. New York swept the series by a combined score of 15-5. In the final game, Noah Syndergaard delivered a six-inning, two-hit gem to get the win.

Atlanta is in 1st place in the NL East, six games up on the 2nd place Washington Nationals and nine games in front of the Mets. New York is just 1.5 games back in the Wild Card chase, behind the Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals.

The Matchup

REC STRE L10 STD RS RA
Atlanta 77-52 W5 8-2 1-NL East 691 619
NY Mets 67-60 W5 6-4 3-NL East 617 591

Tonight’s game marks the start of a six-game road trip for the Braves. They just wrapped up an impressive 7-2 homestand. For the season, the team is 39-27 at home and 38-25 in road tilts. The club is playing really well with a mark of 8-2 over the last 10 games.

Atlanta has won its last three series in a row and four of the last five. The run differential for the season stands at +72. That’s good enough for 4th in the NL. Over its current five-game winning streak, the club has outscored opponents by a margin of 22-9.

The Mets are in the midst of a nine-game homestand for which they are a perfect 3-0 thus far. The team is 37-21 on the home field, but just 30-39 in away games on the season. Over the last 10 games, New York checks in with a record of 6-4.

The club has won its last two series in a row and stands at 4-1 for the last five. A run differential of +26 leaves them in the middle of the pack in the NL. For the current five-game winning streak, the Mets have outscored opponents by a margin of 30-11.

The Bats

HR RBI AVG OBP SLG RSL5
Atlanta 205 669 .262 .337 .460 22
NY Mets 182 596 .258 .328 .438 30

The Braves have the statistical advantage at the plate, but the Mets have the hotter bats of late. Freddie Freeman leads the way for Atlanta with a .303 BA and 103 RBIs. Acuna Jr. is tops on the team with 36 homers. Jeff McNeil is batting .332 to lead the Mets. Rookie sensation Pete Alons leads the Mets with 40 HRs and 97 ribbies.

Starting Pitchers

W-L IP ERA WHIP K/9 OPS
Mike Foltynewicz-R 4-5 75.1 6.09 1.47 8.24 .882
Jacob deGrom-R 8-7 155.0 2.61 1.05 11.27 .612

As the inflated ERA suggests, Foltynewicz has had some trouble spots this season. He has picked up the win in three of his last five outings. Last time out, he gave up two earned runs over 4.2 innings in a no-decision versus the Dodgers. While the record may not reflect it, deGrom has been pitching the lights out with wins in four of his last seven starts. For his last outing, he gave up one earned run over seven innings in a win over the Kansas City Royals.

The Bullpens

ERA SV IP OPS WHIP K/9
Atlanta 4.34 35 460.1 .767 1.45 9.27
NY Mets 5.07 31 409.2 .806 1.46 9.36

Atlanta has the overall edge in the bullpen, but New York has shown some improvement since its early-season relief corps struggles. Over his last 10 outings, Foltyniewicz has lasted five innings or more eight times. For the same span, deGrom has hit that mark each time. He has also lasted seven innings in six of his last eight appearances.

Previous Meetings

For the season series to date, the Braves hold an 8-5 advantage over the Mets. After this three-game set comes to a close, the teams won’t cross paths again until the end of the regular season when they hook up for another three down in Atlanta.

The Verdict

Both of these clubs are playing really well right now and have lots to play for. That’s a recipe for an exciting three-game series. For Atlanta, it’s an opportunity to build upon its sizable division lead. New York will be looking to continue its run of hot play since the All-Star break while continuing to make headway in the playoff chase.

The way deGrom has been pitching lately makes it tough to go against him at home. We’re not going to make that mistake, as the Mets are big favorites tonight for a reason. We’re rolling with New York to open up this series with a win.

My Pick
NEW YORK METS
Chris Feery / Author

Chris has been covering sports professionally since 2014. Initially focused on the NFL and College Football, he has branched out to cover all of the other major team sports such as MLB, NHL, NBA, and College Basketball. Chris also has extensive experience in the world of fantasy sports. His work has been recognized on two separate occasions by the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association. From parlays to power rankings and previews to picks, Chris prides himself on delivering exceptional content with actionable information.