We had another winning MLB day yesterday, winning three of four pics thanks in large part to the Reds touching up Travis Wood for five earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings, en route to their 5-2 win. The Cardinals finally lost a game to the Dodgers, but the run total went OVER in the process, giving us our third win in four picks. Adding in the +130 money for the Reds on the runline, it was a pretty good day.
Today’s picks will be a little lighter, as the majority of the games are at 1pm, so I’ll add an afternoon game as the bonus pick, as well as breaking down the ESPN Sunday night game between the Mets and Braves.
Today’s Free Picks:
Colorado Rockies +160 at San Francisco Giants -170 (Total: 7.5)
John Garland (3-5, 5.19 ERA) vs. Matt Cain (3-2, 5.12 ERA)
Given Matt Cain’s struggles this season and the fact that both these teams are five games over .500, getting the Rockies at +160 seems like a pretty decent value. However, I think the Giants are going to get the win today, if for no other reason that I can’t see the Giants not denting the plate a few times off Garland today. They have scored five and six runs respectively in the first two games of this series and Garland has allowed plenty of runs lately, posting a 6.19 ERA and going 0-3 in his last three starts.
I’ll take the OVER 7.5 today in a nice warm afternoon in the Bay.
Free Pick: Run TOTAL OVER 7.5
Atlanta Braves -129 at New York Mets +120 (Total: 7.5)
Julio Teheran (3-1, 3.99 ERA) vs. Shaun Marcum (0-5, 6.59 ERA)
To say this season hasn’t been kind to Sean Marcum so far would be a bit of an understatement. To say it would be difficult to find a pitcher who has been in the rotation all season with WORSE numbers would be more accurate. Tonight he will try to get right on national television against a good Braves lineup. Atlanta is averaging over four and a half runs per game and hitting nearly one and a half homeruns per contest. Marcum is going to need to keep them inside the yard tonight to have a chance to earn his first win of the season.
Young hurler Teheran hasn’t been quite as dominant as expectations, but he has done a pretty good job, especially lately. He is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00 in his last three outings. I expect him to control the Mets lineup and give the Braves six or seven solid innings. At that point, the Braves relinquish the ball to one of the better bullpens in MLB. Yes, Kimbrel had a slight bump in the road a few weeks ago, but this is still a pen with a combined ERA of just 2.73.
I like the Braves tonight at -129, and am doubling up on the runline at +135
Free Picks: Atlanta Braves to WIN -129, & Atlanta -1.5 (+135)