Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres MLB Odds and Pick for April 14th

There are only eight games on Major League Baseball’s evening slate for Thursday. A few teams will have their home openers, however, including the San Diego Padres. Bob Melvin’s squad is 4-3 through their first seven games of the year, which is a solid start considering they’ve played nothing but road games thus far.

The Padres will return to Petco Park on Thursday night with the defending champions in town. The Atlanta Braves are off to a relatively disappointing 3-4 start, but it’s quite early in the campaign. However, it’s worth noting the Braves have played nothing but home games to this point, and they weren’t going up against particularly stiff competition. Getting off to a sub-.500 start through seven games against the Reds and Nationals is still suboptimal.
This should be a fun matchup all weekend. These teams both expect to be in the hunt for the National League pennant. The Braves are looking to become the first team since the 2017-18 Dodgers to represent the NL in the World Series in consecutive seasons. The Padres are still looking for their first pennant since 1998.

Joe Musgrove will start the home opener for the Padres. The Braves will counter with veteran right-hander Charlie Morton on Thursday night.

BetOnline oddsmakers have this game as close to a toss-up. You can get the Braves at -108 moneyline odds to win it, while the Padres are slight home underdogs at -102.

Atlanta Braves

It’s easy to forget that the Braves spent most of last season treading water before their dramatic turnaround. Atlanta didn’t even crack the .500 mark for good until August 6th last season. They didn’t play up to their talent level in the first half of the season, but they caught fire at the perfect time.

This version of the Braves looks a bit different, though. Freddie Freeman, Jorge Soler, and Joc Pederson are all gone. These were arguably the Braves’ three most important bats in last year’s World Series win over the Astros. Ronald Acuna Jr. is still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered last summer, as well.

Despite a few new faces, the Braves still face high expectations this season. Of course, winning the NL East again will be no easy task. Atlanta opened the season with the second-best odds to win the division behind the Mets, who are off to a solid 5-2 start. The Phillies are also looming as a potential threat to the Braves’ reign atop the division.

The Braves are in good hands with Morton tonight, however.
The right-hander yielded just two runs on two hits across 5.1 innings of work in his season debut against the Reds last week. The 38-year-old has a 3.35 ERA in his first two seasons with the Braves, and he still isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

The Padres are still missing the big bat of Fernando Tatis Jr., so this isn’t a bad matchup for Morton. San Diego’s projected lineup for tonight’s game has a low .141 collective ISO (isolated slugging percentage) against right-handed pitching since the beginning of the 2021 campaign.

San Diego Padres

It will be interesting to see how the Padres fare this season after failing miserably to live up to their lofty goals a season ago. The decision to replace Jayce Tingler with Bob Melvin on the bench should provide some much-needed stability, though the absence of Tatis over the next couple of months will hurt the team’s offense considerably.

Fortunately, the Padres can pitch. Every one of their starters is an All-Star-caliber arm, including Musgrove. The right-hander pitched the Padres’ first-ever no-hitter early last season, and he was easily one of the team’s more reliable rotation options. In 40 games last year, including 31 starts, Musgrove went 11-9 with an impressive 3.18 ERA.

In his season debut in Arizona last weekend, Musgrove struck out eight Diamondbacks while conceding just a couple of runs on five hits scattered across six innings of work. San Diego will desperately need their pitching to carry them as long as Tatis is sidelined with his wrist issue.

He’ll have to navigate a very powerful Atlanta lineup in this one, however. The Braves’ decision to replace Freeman with Matt Olson won’t cost them anything in the power department. Atlanta’s projected lineup owns a collective .198 ISO with a .323 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching since last season began.

The Padres enter this game with a minus-1 run differential despite a winning record. The Braves, meanwhile are at minus-3 in the run differential department through the first week of the season.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres MLB Game Pick

Oddsmakers are expecting a pitcher’s duel between Morton and Musgrove in this one. The over/under for this game is set at just 7.5 runs, which is the lowest mark on the entire day.

Please Note:
The Padres took two of three games against the Braves in Atlanta last July, but the Braves exacted some revenge the last time they visited Petco Park. The red-hot Braves swept the floundering Padres in three games in San Diego at the end of September.

In a game that looks like a virtual toss-up, I’ll side with the Braves. I have more faith in Morton to deliver a strong outing against a shorthanded version of the Padres’ lineup. The Braves haven’t gotten off to a blazing start with the bats, but Musgrove is certainly the more vulnerable of the two starters set to take the mound in this one. Give me the Braves to pick up the road victory tonight at -108 moneyline odds.

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Betting Recap

  • Moneyline: Braves -108, Padres -102
  • Runline: Braves +1.5 (-220), Padres -1.5 (+190)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 runs (-110), Under 7.5 runs (-110)
  • Pick: Atlanta Braves (-108)


Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.