Braves vs. Phillies MLB Pick – July 28th

We split our pick yesterday with the Reds, of course, losing again – and if you went with the continuing trend of them also losing on the runline every night, you made a nice payday. However, their pitching staff was less awful than usual, so the run total remained under the nine run threshold. We will pick our money back up and get back on the grind tonight and see if we can have a second straight big weekend.

There are some delicious series to choose from tonight, highlighted by the Cubs and Brewers battle for NL Central supremacy and the Rockies weekend in Washington D.C. which will go a long way towards determining if there is going to be a National League wildcard race or not; if the Nats handle their business at home, the second wildcard slot could finally be back in legitimate contention…

Let’s get on with today’s MLB pick.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Atlanta Braves -118 at Philadelphia Phillies +109 (Total: 9)
Julio Tehran (7-8, 4.67 ERA) vs. Jeremy Hellickson (6-5, 4.73 ERA)

The Braves and Phillies isn’t the most glamorous matchup on the slate this weekend and it has very little consequence on the season and the postseason landscape. But if you like the nuance of baseball, tonight is a nice value matchup lurking in disguise. At a glance, it’s a pretty even matchup; even pitching stats with the Braves the better team slightly but Philly playing better baseball lately and having home field advantage. Even matchup right? Even Vegas seems to think so.

But an odd statistical trend has gone on long enough for Julio Tehran to assume it is causal and not coincidence at this point. He is terrible at home and really, really good on the road. This season away from his new ballpark home, Tehran has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He owns a 2.5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio away from home and has delivered four straight quality starts.

Meanwhile, Hellickson has been a little worse at home, posting a 5.14 ERA and on the season, batters are hitting .261 against him. He is the subject of a TON of trade deadline chatter and it didn’t seem to sit well with him in his last outing, allowing six runs and nine baserunners in just five innings. He will need a better outing tonight to outduel an All Star road pitcher, who if his home stats mirrored his road output, he would have been an actual All Star again in 2017.

Tehran has been on fire in July, averaging nearly a strikeout an inning (24 in 25.1) and holding batters to a .202 batting average. I’ll take him to handle the Phillies lineup and to lead the Braves to a road win.


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