Braves vs. Phillies MLB Pick – September 9th

The Atlanta Braves are in Philadelphia for a four-game series against the Phillies. Their winning streak came to an end at nine games, as Mike Soroka didn’t have a standout performance for the Braves yesterday afternoon. Max Scherzer took control early, while Soroka was have trouble with commanding his pitches. The Nationals were able to take advantage and pounced on the Braves for a 9-4 win.

The final games of the regular are far more important for the Nationals, as they try and remain in the Wild Card Game. The Nationals would be hosting the Chicago Cubs if that game were today. Even more important is how the Phillies perform down the stretch.

Philadelphia are in desperate need of some wins in September. Two games may seem like nothing, but they are competing against the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Cubs. The Mets at four games back are still in the wildcard discussion as well. In other words, they have a lot of competition to deal with.

A two-game deficit is larger than it appears. In any event, having to play lights out down the stretch just to reach the Wild Card Game is not what the front office had in mind with this team. Instead, they were going to sign Bryce Harper and it was going to put them over top of the Braves.

Not even close, as the Phillies are two touchdowns and two extra points behind the Braves in the NL East. The closest team to the Braves in the division are the Nationals at nine games back. So, Atlanta are in a great position and all that is left to do is clinch.

The way I see it, they are the most underrated team who are destined for the postseason, but we’ll see how things play out. Mike Foltynewicz has been heating up of late. His re-emergence would help immensely. Folty gets the nod against Aaron Nola tonight in Philadelphia. Head below for our free Braves vs. Phillies pick.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Phillies -135/Braves +115
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Mike Foltynewicz (5-5, 5.28 ERA)
  • Aaron Nola (12-4, 3.63 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Mike Foltynewicz had a coming out party in Atlanta last season. He had a career-high ERA of 2.95 and there were lofty expectations for him to follow it up with another successful campaign in 2019. For the most part, this season has not gone as planned for Foltynewicz. That’s an understatement, as he carries a 5.28 ERA and 1.41 WHIP into Philadelphia on Monday night.

However, is he starting to figure things out at the perfect time for the Braves? He holds an ERA of 1.62 and 1.14 WHIP in his previous three outings. August 8th was the last day that he allowed more than 3 runs in a game. The game that got him going was an impressive showing against the Dodgers, as Foltynewicz allowed just 4.2 innings of work. A solid showing against a team like the Dodgers might be exactly what he needed.

If Foltynewicz isn’t pitching like a flash in the pan recently, and this is for real, then the Braves would get a nice lift for their pitching staff in October. Along with Teheran and Soroka, the Braves would be in nicer shape than they already were. He has been solid against the Phillies in his career, as they’re hitting .230 in 252 at-bats.

Nola has been just okay recently. He has posted a 4.67 ERA in his previous three starts. The Braves have connected for 9 home runs and 23 runs against Nola in 257 at-bats. In those 252 at-bats that the Phillies have had against Foltynewicz, they’ve recorded 7 home runs and 15 runs.

The Phillies are the more desperate team, but that doesn’t always equate to a win. Getting +115 on the Braves here looks like a great deal. Folty is feeling it right now and I believe the Braves are being undervalued at this price on Monday.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.