Braves vs. Rockies Pick MLB – July 21st

We took the loss last night with Jeff Locke struggling and the Pirates unable to find anyone to come in and out up some zeroes en route to a 9-5 loss at PNC Park to the Brewers.  Hopefully we can get back on the winning track tonight, but even if we take another loss, our day won’t be nearly as bad as the Dodgers.  News has leaked out this morning that the Dodgers aren’t ruling out the need for surgery for star pitcher Clayton Kershaw.   The Dodgers performance with Kershaw versus WITHOUT him is a staggering difference and it is hard to envision them even making the playoffs without their future Hall of Fame hurler.

It’s a pretty light slate of action today in the National League with only five games on the slate.  We will head to the mountains for tonight’s free pick.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Atlanta Braves +153 at Colorado Rockies -163 (Total: 12)

Mike Foltynewicz (3-3, 3.70 ERA) vs. Chad Bettis (7-6, 5.55 ERA)

Look, I get it.  The baseball flies out of the Coors Field and some ridiculous scorelines happen regularly that fly in the face of the rest of the “year of the pitcher” narratives.  But banking on a dozen runs in an MLB baseball game featuring the worst offense in the National League seems like a pretty difficult proposition.

Mike Foltynewicz has been pretty good for the Braves this year.  They have treated him gently, pulling him from games in the fourth and fifth inning even in outings where he wasn’t getting shelled, but he has still amassed five quality starts in ten outings.  The 24-year old hurler has good stuff, though he will obviously have his work cut out for him tonight at Coors.

Chad Bettis is getting the ball for the Rockies, which could be good news for the home fans.  The Rox are 6-1 in Bettis’s last seven starts, despite a relatively high ERA of 5.15.  This is probably a big reason why the Rockies are both heavy favorites tonight and the run total is through the roof.

But at the end of the day, twelve runs is a LOT.  Even if both starters struggle, there is some wiggle room with a dozen runs to play with.  The Braves are the worst offensive team in the National League by a lot.  This isn’t going to be a 2-1 game or anything, but I think it will stay in a reasonable constraint.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL UNDER 12