I took the day off yesterday, but will look to build on a nice four of five streak today with a few winning picks. But before we do, a quick welcome back to Derek Jeter… and a bon voyage?? I know the Yankees are putting a positive spin on his 8th inning departure with “quad tightness” writing on the frontpage of their website that “the captain returns to save the Yankees from the high seas” and then somewhat obliquely, “He exited with a tight quad in the eighth, but hopes to return for the final series of the first half.” Huh? That seems to be a pretty optimistic slant on the fact a 38-year old player returned from half a season on the Disabled List, only to leave the game in the 8th inning and be unlikely to play for a few days. I’m hoping for the best as a baseball fan, but I’m not sold that Jeter is the magic elixir that is going to propel this average roster to the postseason.
On to today’s pick…
Milwaukee Brewers +150 at Arizona Diamondbacks -160 (Total: 8)
Tom Gorzelanny (1-2, 2.12 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (10-1, 2.40 ERA)
The Brewers have played a little better baseball lately, winning five of their last ten, but they are still one of the worst teams on the road in all of MLB. Their 15-28 record is dismal, and they started the series in a similar losing fashion last night, falling 5-3 to the D’Backs. Tonight, they will try to snap out of their road funk against one of the best pitchers in the league; not exactly an easy recipe for success.
Patrick Corbin has been fantastic, and were the All-Star Game not in New York, Corbin could be in the discussion with Matt Harvey for starting pitcher consideration. He is 10-1 on the season, with a WHIP of 0.98. Even more impressive, the D’Backs are a ridiculous 16-2 in games he has started this season. It is hard to see them falling off tonight at home against one of the worst road teams in baseball.
Arizona has beaten Milwaukee seven of their last ten times, and it is pretty easy to argue that Milwaukee is far worse and Arizona is far better than a season ago. The line of -160 isn’t a terrible price for a game this heavily slanted in Arizona’s favor, but the real value is in the -1.5 runline at +135.
I love Corbin tonight, so I’m doubling up on Arizona to WIN and the runline.
Free Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks to WIN -160 & Arizona -1.5 (+135)