Brewers at Dodgers – Free Pick for May 28th

Milwaukee Brewers +104 at Los Angeles Dodgers -114 (Total: 7.5)

Shaun Marcum (2-3, 3.93 ERA) vs. Aaron Harang (3-2, 4.36)

In honor of Memorial Day, most of MLBs action is taking place in the afternoon, but there are a few good evening games as well.  In an odd reversal of fortune from last season, the Brewers are floundering near the bottom of the league and the Dodgers are setting the league on fire with the best record in baseball.

You know things are going good in Los Angeles when even the fifth starter you rescued off the baseball scrap heap is producing dominant results.  Aaron Harang was one of the most consistent and underrated starters in the league for five year from 2004-2009, but then injuries and loss of velocity had him nearly out of baseball and was even left off the Reds postseason roster in 2010 in favor of two rookies and middle relievers.  Now, after a slow start, Harang is pitching fantastic.  In his past three starts he is 2-0, the team is 3-0, and he has a 2.71 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.98.

Tonight he faces a strong Milwaukee lineup, but in pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine, I am betting he is able to keep the Brewer bats under control.  He also has a favorable pitching matchup squaring off against Shaun Marcum.  Marcum has struggled of late, going 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three outings.

The Brewers have lost four of six and seven of ten overall.  The Dodgers enter tonight’s game winners of  two in a row and eight of their last ten.  Even with the injury to Matt Kemp, who seemed to be literally carrying the team, they haven’t missed a beat.  Andre Eithier has continued to produce, leading the National League with 40 RBIs, and the pitching has been excellent with a staff ERA of just 3.15.

Los Angeles has been unreal at home, posting a 21-5 record that is on pace to be one of the best home marks in baseball history.  Meanwhile, the Brewers are up to their same losing ways on the road, floundering with an 8-15 record in 2012.  Between the pitching matchups, the overall quality of the team, and the home/road splits, getting the Dodgers at just -114 seems like a pretty good value play.

I like Aaron Harang to continue his strong pitching and to earn the Dodgers yet another home win.

Free Pick:  Los Angeles Dodgers to WIN -114

Chris Scheeren / Author