The Diamondbacks certainly made it interesting last night, but we emerged with the winner nonetheless. Things were looking pretty good with a 6-0 lead in the sixth inning before the wheels came off for Greinke and the Snakes in a six-run sixth-inning for the Tigers. It took a single run in the top of the ninth to preserve the once-easy victory, 7-6, and after a bit of a scare, we cashed the winning wager. Hopefully we can find a little more breathing room in tonight’s pick.
Elsewhere, the Cardinals split a double header with the Brewers, and the Cubs took out some frustration on the Mets, exploding for 14 runs in a 14-3 victory. The end result is an ever-tightening NL Central with the Brewers leading by just a game over the Cubs and the entire division separated by just four games.
The NL West is similarlay tight, with three of the four best teams in the league perched well atop the division and jockeying back and forth for position. The Rockies were the only loser and now sit even with the Dodgers and both just a half-game ahead of Arizona.
We have some nice matchups today and tonight, highlighted by Brandon McCarthy and Corey Kluber squaring off in Cleveland. Let’s see if we can grab an easier winner today.
Today’s MLB Pick:
Milwaukee Brewers +155 at St. Louis Cardinals -162
Matt Garza vs. Mike Leake
After leading the NL in ERA for nearly two months and going the entire season without failing to deliver a quality start, Mike Leake has finally begun a regression towards the more logical mean. He has always been a solid MLB pitcher, but never a dominating one, and never a Cy Young candidate. In his last three starts, his ERA has climbed back closer to three and he has failed to deliver a quality start in any of them. He has allowed 11 runs in 18.2 innings and 26 base runners for a WHIP close to one and a half. Add in the fact the Brewers have a quality offense and generally play well on the road, and it introduces some decent underdog value today.
Assuming Matt Garza can hold up his end of the bargain. He owns an ERA just under 4.00 in his career against St. Louis and was 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA against them last season. The veteran has made 14 starts against the redbirds in his lengthy career. Similarly, Mike Leake own a 4.55 ERA against Milwaukee – made a little more interesting by the fact that Milwaukee has been largely mediocre during Leake’s career while St. Louis has been always good during Garza’s.
I’ll take the value of the Brew Crew tonight in a relatively even pitching matchup.
Today’s MLB Pick: MILWAUKEE BREWERS TO WIN +155