I haven’t bet an MLB game in a few days now, since Saturday actually, to focus on the NFL. I’m definitely excited to back to handicapping football games which was a refreshing change for a bit, but now that I had a couple days off from baseball I’m raring to get back in the routine of the baseball grind. That’s what betting on baseball is, a grind. Grinding out a profit in this marathon with solid bankroll management is the success to winning at baseball, something plenty of people have a problem with, but I have managed to pull big profits on the diamond this season. Let’s take a look what’s on the agenda for Tuesday night in MLB.
Free MLB Pick
Milwaukee Brewers +165 at St. Louis Cardinals -180 (Total: 8)
Wily Peralta (9-14, 4.51 ERA) vs. Shelby Miller (12-9, 3.19)
The St. Louis Cardinals are right back in the thick of things as one of the best teams in baseball. There was a period during the start of the season where the Cardinals were the undisputed favorite, but like it always is with baseball, the summer progressed and other teams began to creep into the picture. The Cardinals have been kind of a forgotten team in the midst of the Dodgers run, but they have been swinging the bats better than ever recently. They are fresh off a three game sweep of the Pirates, a series in which they scored 27 runs. Heck, some teams haven’t scored 27 runs in a two week span.
The Cardinals will have the benefit of having one of the best home pitchers in the game on the mound tonight, Shelby Miller. Miller has been spectacular in general, but has really shined when he gets the call in St. Louis, posting an ERA of only 1.92 with a 0.95 WHIP. His OBP is quite good as well, with that coming in at .249 at home. The Brewers tend to hit left-handed better, so this game is in Miller’s favor.
I’m not going to write anything too negatively about Wily Peralta, because he is what he is, an average, vanilla pitcher that is an adequate option deep in the bullpen. Peralta will have one good start, but then gets bombed way too often to be considered a good pitcher. In addition, Peralta is only usually good for about 5 innings before giving way to the Brewer bullpen. He has a 3.94 ERA on the road, which is again, average, but his WHIP is quite high at 1.31 with a 1.41 in his last three starts. There are teams you can put runners on base and escape, but the Cards will usually make you pay for that. It doesn’t help Peralta’s cause that the Cardinals hit righties at .276.
The records between these two are nearly flipped completely, the Cardinals, 83-60, and the Brewers are 62-80. I think that is a fair representation of the quality of each ball club. The Cardinals are fairly stingy at home, posting a record of 41-25 compared to 39-35 on the road. -180 is too steep of a price for me, but I don’t think we’re going to need just one run to win. Give me the Cardinals on the RL Tuesday night.
Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5