Brewers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Pick – July 18th

The Milwaukee Brewers hope to take some of the momentum they built up at home against the Braves and take it with them to the desert. Milwaukee were winners in their last two games by scores of 13-1 and 5-4. They avoided a disaster yesterday, as they nearly blew a 5-run lead late in the contest. The bullpen surrendered 4 runs between the 8th and 9th, but didn’t allow the most important run of all.

They needed something to go well for them, because their output was looking dreary before winning those two games. The Brew Crew were losers in five of six games and 2-8 in their previous ten games. Despite this tough run, and record of 50-47, the Brewers are still only 2.5 games behind the Cubs and would be in the postseason if the playoffs started today. How? Well, it’s the National League.

A record of 50-47 would put them 5.5 games behind a wildcard in the American League. In any event, the American League isn’t of concern to them. They just have to look at this second life that they have in front of them and make the most of it. You could say the same thing for virtually every team in the National League not named the Dodgers and Marlins. The Dodgers at the very high end of the spectrum, and the Marlins at the very bottom.

The Brewers got excellent pitching from Brandon Woodruff in the 13-1 win, with only 5 hits and 1 earned run allowed in 6.2 innings of work. Chase Anderson followed that up with a brilliant performance of his own. He allowed just 1 hit and no runs across 5.2 innings of work. Fortunately, his bullpen didn’t completely botch the game and he was able to get the win. Zach Davies has been on fire recently, and he will look to keep it going in Arizona tonight. Rookie Merrill Kelly will counter for the Diamondbacks. Head below for our free Brewers vs. Diamondbacks pick.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -110/Diamondbacks -110
  • O/U: 9.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Zach Davies (7-2, 2.89 ERA)
  • Merrill Kelly (7-9, 3.93 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Zach Davies rolls into the desert with some impressive numbers under his belt recently. He has been on fire with an ERA of 0.55 and 1.04 WHIP in his last three contests. Davies has allowed just 1-run in those 16.1 innings for his most impressive stretch of the season. He’s been pretty good throughout the season, though, so this isn’t a one-off type thing for him. Davies sports a nice record of 7-2 with an overall ERA of 2.89 and 1.33 WHIP on the season. He’s been quite effective on the road as well, with a 2.75 ERA so pitching in the desert shouldn’t bother him too much.

On top of that, the D-Backs have been abysmal against Davies with a batting average of .190 in 21 at-bats. Jake Lamb is the only Diamondback to record a deep ball against Davies in his career. We should expect him to turn in a pretty nice performance against the Diamondbacks in this spot. Kelly has been good lately, but not early as hot as Davies. He holds an ERA of 3.94 with a 1.38 WHIP in his last three outings. However, the Diamondbacks are only 1-4 in his last four starts.

He will be returning home after making three straight appearances on the road. This should be an entertaining game between two teams who are nearly in a deadlock record wise, the Brewers at 49-47 and Diamondbacks 48-47. Milwaukee has had the upper hand with four straight wins over Arizona. It hasn’t really been close either, with an average winning margin of 4 runs. Also considering how hot Davies has been recently, it’s hard to want to fade him. I suspect the Brewers pick up some momentum following their successful series against the Braves.

The Bet
BREWERS
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.