I promise you I’m not only dialed into picking Brewers games. It’s just happening that way. Milwaukee got me a nice win last week, but my last try had them burning me when I changed sides and rolled with the Rockies to win by two runs.
Colorado lost that game in a crazy 11-10 shootout at Coors Field. I was close, but I ate the loss and my MLB picks dropped to 3-4 on the young season.
Once again, I’m trying to climb back up to .500 and see if I can’t piece a winning streak together. MLB betting is volatile by nature and that’s been the way my picks have gone to this point. Regardless, I see some value on a huge 14-game MLB slate and am looking to attack it at Chase Field tonight.
That brings the Brew Crew back into the fold, as they’re playing game two of their current series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Patrick Corbin wasn’t quite good enough last night, as he gave up four runs and the D’Backs lost for a sixth straight time.
That brutal run has to end eventually, while the Brewers aim to hold onto a slim NL Central lead.
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.5, -150) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5, +130) Total: 8 (-110)
There is some value in the Brewers as a +140 upset pick. They’ve been very good (15-8) on the road so far this year and they’re in a pretty nice groove (6-4 over their last 10 contests). They also bring a lot of power to the table and got this series off on the right foot by stealing a win last night.
I think their mini roll ends tonight, however. Vegas is backing the Diamondbacks here, as Zack Greinke gives them a serious arm advantage as AZ tries to add to their 13-11 home record.
Arizona was previously looking like one of the better teams in the majors, but this nasty six-game drought has dropped them down a peg or two. They still own the NL West, but their 1.5 game lead isn’t very large and they know they need to get back to their winning ways.
I just like everything about this matchup for Arizona.
Obviously the Brewers are a tough out and even when everything isn’t clicking, they seem to just hang tight and give themselves a chance. However, it’s fair to say the Diamondbacks are the better overall team and with the clear pitching edge here, their bats just need to show up a bit to snap this nasty skid.
Backing Arizona at their -164 price at Bovada really isn’t an option, though. The angle I prefer is to take them by two runs (-1.5 run line) and eat up a nice +130 price.
I’ve said in the past that betting on the run line can ask for trouble and it absolutely can. However, Milwaukee is still one of their best bats (Eric Thames) when it comes to hitting top shelf righties and Zack Greinke is a pretty tough task.
That’s especially the case at Chase Field, where Greinke was too much to handle in 2017 (13-1, 2.87 ERA) and is again on the right track (2-0, 1.72 ERA) this season.
Greinke hasn’t enjoyed as many elite performances this year as we’ve seen in the past, but he’s been very steady and takes care of business in his home park. Chase Field has slowly turned into more of a pitcher’s haven than in year’s past, too, while the Brewers supply Greinke with a favorable matchup due to high strikeout rate (7th most Ks in MLB).
Even if I did trust the Brewers here, I don’t like the guy they’re putting on the mound – Jhoulys Chacin.
Chacin has somehow managed to keep it together for the Brewers thus far in 2018, but his 4.00 ERA is far from elite and he’s been a different guy (in a bad way) on the road, posting a weak 5.27 ERA with a .280 batting average allowed.
This is not a high level pitcher you’re normally asked to fear and while Arizona hasn’t been clicking offensively lately, they have the fire power to send him to the dugout early. Chacin has been much more vulnerable to power on the road this year and that’s not any different than what you saw out of him in 2017 with the Padres (4-7, 6.53 ERA on the road).
I expect Greinke to be dialed in and slice up the Brewers in this one and I doubt Chacin comes ready to match him.
The D’Backs probably wouldn’t mind returning the favor after Milwaukee took care of them last night, while they can ill afford to let this losing streak continue on. Look for a big D’Backs win as they get you solid value at +130 at Bovada.