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Brewers vs. Dodgers MLB Pick – August 27th

It was a day of extremes in the National League. The Cubs flexed some overdue offensive muscle, tallying 17 runs against the Phillies to maintain their 3 games lead over Milwaukee ( 4 ½ over the Cards), and despite winning 17-2, they weren’t the biggest takeaway from the game. That honor went to Phillies rookie Rhys Hoskins, who became the faster player in MLB history to hit ten career homeruns, and he did it a LOT quicker. NO one had ever hit ten in twenty games, Hoskins accomplished the mark in his 17th game. Pretty amazing stuff…

On the other end of the spectrum, the Pirates stayed within remote shouting distance in the Central by beating the Reds 1-0 in a game where the only run scored on a homerun by starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. From a hurling perspective, that is some little league-stuff; a pitcher literally winning the game all by himself.

We took a frustrating loss with Madison Bumgarner handling his business but the Giants were unable to support him in a 2-1 loss at Arizona, pushing our underdog play a run short of payout. Let’s try to cap off a rough two weeks with a winning punctuation mark.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Milwaukee Brewers +190 at Los Angeles Dodgers -200 (Total: 8.5)
Jimmy Nelson (9-6, 3.79 ERA) vs. Yu Darvish (8-9, 3.83 ERA)

There hasn’t been much profit in fading the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine this season, but the Brewers did issue a rare defeat last night, winning 3-0, and giving the Dodgers just their 15th home loss of the season. They will try to accomplish an ever rarer feat – winning a series against the Dodgers – in tonight’s finale at 4:10 EST. They have the right man on the mound to do so; Jimmy Nelson has a 1.43 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers.  He had a rough stretch of three starts, but appeared to right the ship in his last outing.

However – Nelson is also 0-2, the recipient of two tough-luck losses and a pair of no decisions. “BIG SWEAT” will be looking for a better result tonight. And not that ANY of you care, but I am completely “get off my lawn” old man on this whole dopey nickname on the back of the jersey thing. I went to a Cincinnati vs. Pirates game and Joey Votto had “Tokki 2” on the back of his jersey. If there were an available line on the over/under for number of human beings who have ever referred to Joe Votto as “Tokki 2” prior to Friday, I would have won money on the UNDER 0.5…

I digress.

The Dodgers are a ridiculous 26-10 after a loss and have an average MOV at home of 2.1 – easily the best in baseball. Yu Darvish has been a BEAST since joining Los Angeles, striking out 22 batters in 18 innings and allowing just five earned runs. I expect him to be sharp tonight as well.

I’m not loving the value of the line, given Nelson’s success this season and the recent cooling of the Dodgers bats. But I am fine with both starting pitchers locking horns in a tight ballgame. Eight and a half gives us a little wiggle room on the wager, and I hope to take advantage of it. I’ll take both pitchers and pens to keep things under control tonight.

Today’s MLB Pick: RUN TOTAL UNDER 8.5

 

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