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Brewers vs. Marlins MLB Pick – September 11th

The Milwaukee Brewers avoided a bad loss in Miami last night, as they were able to edge out the Marlins by a score of 4-3. The Brewers were able to record a sac-fly in the 9th to go ahead and hold on. That made it two wins in a row over the Marlins and fifth straight win overall.

The news for the Brewers going into today should be how they’re just one-game back of a wildcard in the National League. However, with Christian Yelich breaking his kneecap, the focus has turned to their MVP. The injury to his knee will keep him off the diamond for the remainder of the season. Of course, that includes the postseason if the Brewers do in fact reach.

Yelich out certainly changes the dynamic of their postseason run. His presence alone changes the approach taken by pitchers when he is due up. Having said that, the Brewers can still get into the postseason without Yelich. It’s going to be much more difficult, but just a game out leaves the Brewers in a good position.

This turn of events certainly favors several other teams who are trying to lock in that final wildcard. It’s a tight race, with the Cubs leading, the Brewers down by a game, and the Phillies behind by two games. The Mets and Diamondbacks are both within three games of the Cubs.

It’s one of those things that you never want to see, especially to a player of Yelich’s caliber. That said, other teams in the National League aren’t going to complain. The Brewers have to just move on and try to pick up the production elsewhere.

They can’t replace a bat like Yelich, but the pitching staff could take the reins and carry the load down the stretch, though. Zach Davies will be tasked with getting the Brewers a sweep over the Marlins on Wednesday. He’s been pitching well and hopes to keep it rolling. The Marlins are expected to counter with Pablo Lopez. Head below for our free Brewers vs. Marlins pick.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Brewers -145/Marlins +125
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Zach Davies (9-7, 3.69 ERA)
  • Pablo Lopez (5-8, 4.75 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

If the Brewers’ pitching staff can pitch lights out down the stretch and I think they’re still going to be in fine shape. Their rotation has been choppy this season, though, and haven’t given much consistency. Zach Davies has been one of their better options, but has still been inconsistent. Davies goes into this matchup with an ERA of 3.69 and 1.34 WHIP on the season.

He’s gone through really hot stretches this season and that’s been the case recently for him. Davies enters Wednesday with a 3.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last three efforts. Note that Davies has allowed just 1-run in his previous two games, which goes across 9.2 innings of work. Prior to getting on this run, Davies was getting torched. That’s just the kind of season it’s been for him. He’s come and gone in waves.

Davies has been sharp on the road this season as opposed to Miller Park in Milwaukee. He holds a 2.83 ERA on the road in 76.1 innings. There have been 6 more deep balls hit against him at home than the road. While Davies has been in fine form, his counterpart this evening, Pablo Lopez is looking to get back on track and finish up the season hot.

In his previous three games and 14.1 innings pitched, Lopez has posted a 7.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Brewers are a little bit of a value here at -145. The injury to Yelich is going to cause people to overreact and that’ll be reflected in the price.

Against elite competition, sure the Brewers are going to see problems without Yelich. However, they should be able to get by without him on Wednesday in Miami. Look for the Brewers to get a sweep and head into a pivotal series against the Cardinals with some momentum.

The Bet
BREWERS
Kyle E / author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.

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