Brewers vs. Padres MLB Pick – June 17th

The Milwaukee Brewers avoided a sweep on Sunday in San Francisco with a 5-3 win against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Padres had a wild series in Colorado, and it was capped off by a wild finish on Sunday. The Padres, naturally, taking advantage of an out of sort bullpen, erased a 5-run lead late in the game.

San Diego were down 13-10 going into the 9th and came out of the inning with a 14-13 victory. That makes for the third straight day that a bullpen has blown a game that I’ve been on. It’s impossible to avoid several times over the course of a full season, but having it happen three days in a row isn’t much fun.

It’s a big win for the Padres, as they hope to close the gap in the NL West. They’re going to need many more big wins to make that reality, though. The Padres have put themselves in a tough position and are going to need a hot second-half to play catch up.

They have the Diamondbacks and Rockies ahead of them and the Dodgers have a 12.5-game lead on San Diego. If their lineup can hit like they did in Colorado, they’re going to be just fine in the second-half. Realistically, they are going to be in the wildcard race, though it’s going to be a crowded field.

The Padres came out of Denver with two wins in four days. They scored a staggering 44 runs in four games to take advantage of the friendly hitting conditions at Coors Field. That certainly helped their numbers, without a doubt, but it isn’t like the Padres don’t have talent in their lineup.

A slow start just hurt them and they might be better positioned late in the summer if Manny Machado hits the ON switch. They will hopefully give Jhoulys Chacin a rude welcome back to the bump after he missed a couple of starts with a lower-back strain.

Not sure if that was just a way for the Brewers to give him a couple of weeks off to process things after struggling badly, or his back was seriously bothering him. Chacin and the Brewers have stressed that he made some mechanical tweaks while off. Sophomore Joey Lucchesi will toe the rubber for the Padres as the starter on Monday. Head below for our free Brewers vs. Padres pick.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Padres -130/Brewers +110
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Jhoulys Chacin (3-7, 5.74 ERA)
  • Joey Lucchesi (5-4, 4.11 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Maybe all Chacin needed was a breather to get his head straight, but the Brewers really need him to focus and dig in. Chacin struggling puts this rotation at a major disadvantage, as there isn’t much room for error. A trade may be in the works to bring in a capable arm, like say, Madison Bumgarner. Gio Gonzalez has a dead arm and is on the shelf, so Chacin becomes even more important.

They faced Bumgarner on Saturday and came out of it with an 8-7 loss. Chacin is an oddball and was pitching horribly leading up to his stint on the IL. After posting an ERA of 3.50 last season, he’s been an inconsistent option for the Brewers in 2019. He had an ERA of 9.95 with a 2.29 WHIP and .441 OBA in his previous three starts. That was enough to shut him down for two weeks.

Chacin will be facing his former team in San Diego tonight. He was a member of the Padres for a season in 2017, and did pretty well with a 3.89 ERA, but Chacin wasn’t in their future plans. Regardless of mechanics or back pain, Chacin has been terrible on the road in any situation. His problems on the road date back to early in the season, so he can’t blame it on that. Chacin enters with an ERA of 7.39 with a 1.67 WHIP and 1-6 record. He’s allowed 27 runs in 31.2 innings, so it has been pretty bad for him.

The Padres have had positive results against Chacin in the past as well. They are hitting .293 with a nice .369 OBP against him in 58 at-bats. Lucchesi has been serviceable with an ERA of 4.11 and 1.13 WHIP. He takes on a Milwaukee lineup who are 12th in the majors with 5.09 runs scored per game. They’ve scored 12 runs in their last two games after touching up Bumgarner and Samardzija. The total in this game appears to be a half point too short. I was expecting 9, so will put a unit on the OVER here at 8.5.

The Bet
OVER 8.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.