Brewers vs. Padres MLB Pick – June 19th

The Milwaukee Brewers have a nasty taste in their mouths that they’ll look to wash out against the Padres on Wednesday. They’ve dropped two straight against the Padres and will be looking to avoid a third today. Along with their losses in San Diego, the Brewers have gone 1-4 in their last five games. We’ve seen how fast things can change in a hurry and the Brewers are letting a glaring opportunity slip away.

We can say the same for the Chicago Cubs, who are still trailing the Brewers by half a game. The Cubs could have taken the lead yesterday, but fell short with a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. They’re 2-6 in their previous eight games, so no one really wants to take charge and pull away with a lead. The Brewers are 40-33 and are 1st in the division. That record wouldn’t get them 1st in any other division in Major League Baseball. The next closest 1st place team would be the Braves with a record of 43-31 in the NL East.

For the Brewers to be a contending team, Christian Yelich has to be swinging the bat effectively. If he is then everything else seems to fall into place offensively. When Yelich isn’t doing any damage, like the last couple of games, the Brewers are a sure bet to lose. You can’t ask much more from him, though, as Yelich has hit 26 home runs and owns a .340 batting average in 2019. He’s on pace for another NL MVP award, so the Brewers need others to step up, too.

For the Padres, the time to get going on a run is about now. Put some solid baseball together before the All-Star break and they’re going to be better situated for later on. The prospects of catching the Dodgers looks slim, but they are only three games back of the final wildcard, as it stands now. Former reliever, Matt Strahm, will get the call for the Padres, while the Brewers counter with Zach Davies. Head below for our free Brewers vs. Padres pick.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -110/Padres -110
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Zach Davies (7-1, 2.60 ERA)
  • Matt Strahm (2-6, 4.66 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Zach Davies has operated as the pitcher that the Brewers have absolutely needed this season. Without Davies pitching how he’s been this year; I don’t see the Brewers competing against the Cubs right now. The Cubs likely have a lead and by at least two or three games if Davies doesn’t have seven wins to his name.

With just one loss, Davies has been leading the Brewers, at often times, shaky rotation in Milwaukee. He enters this evening with an ERA of 2.60 in 79.2 innings, and has been quite capable on the road. Note that Davies holds a 2.25 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 48 innings of work as a visitor. That’s better than his effort at home, which is an ERA of 3.13 and 1.29 WHIP.

In 24 at-bats, the Padres have just 1-run scored on Davies. That was collected by Hunter Renfroe, who smacked a solo shot against him. In 14 starts this season, Davies has surrendered 3 or less runs in 13 games. He was dinged for 6 runs at home against the Reds on May 22nd, though hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in an outing since that abysmal effort.

Davies is going to need some run support on Wednesday afternoon, though. The pitching has gotten absolutely no help the last two days. Just an average day for the Brewers’ offense and they win both of those games. They’ve recorded one single run in San Diego, having been outscored by a margin of 6-1 the last two games.

It will be up to Matt Strahm to keep it going for the Padres. A win here will give the Padres their fourth win in a row and sweep of Milwaukee. Strahm must be much better than what he’s been giving recently, however. He has gotten walloped, with 14 hits and 13 runs allowed in his last 7.2 innings.

His ERA is a brisk 10.54 with a 1.83 WHIP in his previous three contests. A lot of pitchers appreciate pitching at this park in San Diego, but Strahm has been off at home, having posted an ERA of 5.60 with 7 home runs allowed as opposed to a 3.96 ERA and 5 long balls on the road. Milwaukee have certainly been playing a crummy brand of baseball in southern California, but Davies should be able to get them out of this funk on Wednesday afternoon.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.