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Brewers vs Padres Pick MLB – April 23rd

If someone told you before the season started that the two top teams in each league would be squaring off in the last week of April, you probably wouldn’t have flinched.  After all, the Cardinals are meeting the Nationals for a fantastic series and the American League West powerhouses, Los Angeles and Texas are squaring off.  But it isn’t those teams entering with the best records.

Instead, the face-off of league’s bests involves the Oakland A’s (no one ever wants to believe in them but they just keep on winning) and the resurgent Boston Red Sox, and in the National League, it isn’t a stunner that Atlanta is playing well with their pitching and the addition of the Upton brothers, but raise your hand if you had the Colorado Rockies at 13-5??

Of course it is early.  The Pirates led the NL Central at the All-Star break only to finish well out of the race and under .500 for the 20th straight year.  But we are starting to get a glimpse that a few teams might be more vulnerable than we thought and a few might hang around a bit later into the season.

Let’s dig into today’s pick by focusing on another lightly-regarded team playing amazing baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers -128 at San Diego Padres +121 (Total: 7)

Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Richard

The Milwaukee Brewers horrible start is a distant memory with their current eight-game winning streak intact.  Ryan Braun is absolutely on fire, homering in consecutive games and tallying six RBI’s.  He has always hit the Padres well, even in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  Last season he homered three times in a game there, and appears to be picking up exactly where he left off.

The Padres are a hot mess this season.   Most pundits knew it would be a rough season, but with the Rockies playing as well as they have, the Padres run the risk of being more than a half-dozen games behind everyone in the division before the end of the month.  They enter tonight at 5-14 with one of the worst offenses in the National League.

That said, the run total tonight feels a little low.  Both Gallardo and Richard enter tonight with ERA’s in the fives.  Gallardo has a career ERA over 4.00 in Petco Park, which is high considering the favorable conditions.  I like the Brewers to keep their sizzling bats alive and for Gallardo to surrender at least a few runs tonight, pushing the total over 7.

And of course, at just -128, the scorching Brewers are a nice value wager.  I’ll take them to win, and if you can find them at +135 or higher on the runline, it is a decent play.

Free Picks:  Milwaukee Brewers to WIN -128 & Run TOTAL OVER 7 (-105)