Brewers vs. Pirates MLB Pick – August 5th

The Milwaukee Brewers stay on the road as their trip away from home continues to start the week. They lost two of three games in Oakland and then proceeded to get swept by the Cubs over the weekend. That leads to a record of 1-5 going into Pittsburgh for the last stop of their nine-game road trip.

The Brewers will be back home on Friday to welcome the Texas Rangers to Milwaukee. They need to get going quickly. A lot can change in a hurry and the Brewers still have time to work with, but it doesn’t help when the Cubs appear to be heating up.

Along with the Cubs, they have to worry about the Cardinals. Their record of 57-56 puts them 3rd in the NL Central, which is 4 games behind the Cubs. They were neck and neck for the majority of the year, but again, it doesn’t take much time for things to change in Major League Baseball.

The Red Sox are in the same boat, as a recent slide has done a lot of damage for their postseason goals. What the Brewers need is to finish this road trip off strong, get back home, and begin to compile some wins at Miller Park. A wildcard is also in play for them. They are currently trailing the Nationals and Phillies by 2 games in the NL.

It’d take some kind of small miracle for the Pirates to find a way into the postseason. They are 10 games back of the final wildcard and go into Monday with a record of 48-63. Spoiler alert, the Pirates’ season is in the garbage can. Pittsburgh were losers in two of three games against the Mets at PNC Park.

They’ll get another home series this week with the Brewers in town. Former Pirate, Jordan Lyles, will make his first start against the Pirates tonight. This is also just his second outing with his new ballclub. Rookie Dario Agrazel will counter for the home team. Head below for our free Brewers vs. Pirates pick.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -130/Pirates +110
  • O/U: 9.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Jordan Lyles (6-7, 5.15 ERA)
  • Dario Agrazel (2-2, 3.65 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Jordan Lyles gets a new start in Milwaukee after failing in his only season with the Pirates. He only made it to the halfway mark before the Pirates traded him to the Brewers. Lyles appeared in 17 games as a Pirate and posted an ERA of 5.36 in 82.1 innings, all of which were as a starter. This is his second stint with the Brewers, having appeared in 11 games out of the bullpen with them last year.

So far so good for him the second time around, but he’s only made one outing thus far. Lyles was sharp against the Athletics in Oakland, with 3 hits and 1 earned run allowed in 5 innings of play. With Brandon Woodruff on the IL, the Brewers were forced to look elsewhere to patch the rotation up.

Lyles is more of a band-aid than anything, though. He struggled in Pittsburgh this season, which was home to him at that point, with a 5.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. His last memory of PNC Park was getting pulled after just 1.2 innings. Lyles got nailed for 7 hits and 5 earned runs against the Cardinals. In another recent start in Pittsburgh, Lyles got drilled for 7 earned runs in 4 innings against the Cubs. The Pirates won’t mind seeing him getting throttled this time around.

24-year-old Dario Agrazal will look to outpitch his veteran counterpart this evening. Agrazal has been pretty effective as a rookie thus far. He’s made only seven starts, but was able to get comfortable immediately. Agrazal has allowed 2 or less runs in five of his seven outings and more than 3 only once.

That was against the Mets on the road a couple of outings ago, where he was smacked for 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings. He hasn’t hit a speedbump in Pittsburgh yet. Agrazal owns a strong 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at PNC Park this season. Lyles doesn’t like pitching here and it showed when he was a Pirate. Expect him to regress after looking good in Oakland. I don’t feel confident laying -130 with Brewers and see some value with the Pirates as underdogs vs Lyles.

The Bet
PIRATES
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.