Brewers vs. Pirates MLB Pick – September 18th

We grabbed a nice winner to close out the week with the Cubs finishing off the sweep (and the Mortal Kombat flawless fatality) of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards can turn their sights to Spring Training 2018, leaving just the Brewers and Rockies as legitimate teams in the postseason discussion without an near-certain seat at the table. The Brewers begin a huge series against the Pirates while the Rockies have a day off before heading to the Bay to visit the struggling Giants.

Heading into the final two weeks, Colorado holds a 2 ½ game edge over Milwaukee but just two games in the loss column. It should be a good race to watch these fine two weeks. The rest of the National League is just in ‘wait a few weeks’ mode. The Nats are looking tough and Strasburg is looking like an ace. His 35 inning scoreless streak was snapped last night, but he still looked fierce. The Dodgers have figured things out and look ready for the postseason. Clayton Kershaw takes his 17-3 record to Philly tonight and STILL has an outside shot of getting 20 wins despite missing significant time to injury. Amazing.

Let’s see if we can have another nice week. Here’s today’s favorite play on the NL board.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Milwaukee Brewers -108 at Pittsburgh Pirates -102 (Total: 8.5)
Brent Suter (2-2, 3.66 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (7-6, 4.78 ERA)

“Want to” seems to matter less in baseball than any other sport, so the whole “this thing matters way more to Milwaukee” can be a dangerous trap to fall in; we see late season spoilers in MLB every season, and given the narrowness between “good” and “bad” in baseball, it’s always wise to instead start on the mound. That’s where the momentum can best be found.

Milwaukee is in a playoff race. Pittsburgh is playing out the string on a disappointing season. The difference between them is 11 games, or about 8%…

HOWEVER, Pittsburgh has REALLY collapsed and appears to have no interest in playing the spoiler role. They have lost 9 of 10 and five in row. They’ve scored just nine runs in their last five games, and three of them were against the Cincinnati Reds and their patchwork staff. It’s pretty bad in PA.

The Brewers are finishing strong. They’ve won seven of nine and are embracing the challenge of hunting down an unexpected postseason berth. They may fall up short, but it is more because of teams around them winning than their own poor play. They’ve won all seven of the most recent wins by two or more runs, making them an amazing runline value recently. I’m going to play it close to the vest today, and take the perfectly fair value at near even money, -108, but if you are feeling bolder…

Taillon has been bombed in three of his last five starts, so the value is with the better team, Milwaukee.


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