Brewers vs. Pirates MLB Pick -September 19th

We grabbed another winner last night with the Brewers saying as hot as the Pirates are cold, winning yet another game to keep the pressure firmly on the Colorado Rockies to withstand their charge for the final wildcard position. The two will be at it again tonight at PNC Park, and I’m expecting a similar result (more on that in a bit).

Elsewhere, Clayton Kershaw took a RARE loss (just his fourth all season against 17 victories) and allowed his first ever grand slam in the process. Let that one sink in… insane. If you had the Dodgers last night, it was another reminder of the danger of the massive laydown in a sport as random as baseball. The Dodgers were -330 at one point during the day, so an L in that game had to really sting…

Let’s see if we can keep building some more positive momentum in the final few weeks of the regular season.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Milwaukee Brewers -125 at Pittsburgh Pirates +118 (Total: 8.5)
Chase Anderson (10-3, 2.88 ERA) vs. Trevor Williams (6-8, 4.26 ERA)

All of the same conditions as yesterday apply, only add a win and loss to the respective streaks, and add a little juice to the Brewers pitching advantage. Chase Anderson has been awesome this season and a HUGE reason why the Brewers are the most unexpected of postseason candidates in the National League. He enters with just three losses all season and an ERA under three. Anderson had a good outing last week against these same Pirates, and seems well aware that tonight’s game has a little extra emphasis. The margin for error at this point is slim, and every game counts. If he is going to be “the guy” for the Brewers, tonight is time to step up and earn it.

Anderson is 5-2 with a 3.20 lifetime ERA against the Buccos and is 2-0 this season with an even better 2.38 ERA.

It won’t be easy for the Brewers offense though. Trevor Williams has been far better than his season stats lately. He wasn’t great in his last outing, but was skipped in the rotation for a little late-season arm preservation, so the Pirates hope he will be back at full strength. Prior to his last outing, he allowed just two combined runs in three starts. I like the Brewers to still win tonight, but I like the value of the UNDER just a little bit more. Eight and a half gives us a little wiggle room to play with tonight – plenty to keep the total under the mark.

It may not be as low as last night’s 3-0 Brewers win, but I expect the Pirates offense to once again be stifled. As long as Williams resembles the guy from two weeks ago and prior, our total should be safe.

Today’s MLB Pick: RUN TOTAL UNDER 8.5 (-105)

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