Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox MLB Pick – July 30

The MLB is set up with another great slate of matchups throughout Saturday. Fifteen games are up on the board throughout July 30. One of these games will be between the Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox. These two teams have been solid and will look for a big win in this one. This game will start at around 4:10 PM Eastern time.

Milwaukee has posted a record of 56-44 so far on the season, which has them in first place of the NL Central. The Brewers have won three games in a row and have gone 6-4 throughout their last 10. Milwaukee has a three game lead on the second place St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers will look to step up early in this one.

The Red Sox have put up a record of 50-51 throughout the season, which has them in last place of the AL East. Boston is coming off a loss in their last game, but are 2-8 throughout the last 10 matchups. The Red Sox are three and a half games back on a wild card spot in this one. Boston will look to grab a win at home on Saturday.

These two teams have been solid so far this season and will look for a win on Saturday. The Brewers have been strong in the recent slate of games and will look to keep it going. Boston has struggled in their last stretch of games as of late. If either team can come out fast in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Milwaukee Brewers +1 ½ (-180) +100 Over 10 (-105)
Boston Red Sox -1 ½ (+155) -120 Under 10 (-115)
Team Data Milwaukee Brewers Boston Red Sox
Overall Record 56-44 50-51
Away/ Home Record 30-24 25-26
Batting Average .238 .254
Batting Average Away/ Home .236 .262
ERA 3.86 4.30
ERA Away/ Home 3.95 4.72

Betting Trends

Milwaukee Brewers

  • 12-10 in July games
  • 6-10 when playing on a Saturday
  • 10-3 in inter-league games
  • 23-19 in day games
  • 40-28 against right handed starters

Boston Red Sox

  • 7-18 in July
  • 7-10 when playing on Saturday
  • 5-6 in inter-league play
  • 15-17 in day games
  • 16-7 against left handers
  • 20-28 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met up once this season in Boston on Friday night. Alex Verdugo had the lone RBI for the Red Sox, which was not enough for the win. Andrew McCutchen, Christian Yelich, Tyrone Taylor and Willy Adames all had an RBI for the Brewers. Milwaukee held on for a 4-1 win in this one. 

Offense

The Brewers have been solid hitting the ball on the season. Milwaukee has a batting average of .238, which is 21st in the MLB. The Brewers have earned a .318 on base percentage, which is 9th in the league. Milwaukee has put up an OPS of .731, which is 7th in the MLB. The Brewers have hit .245 against righties this season.

Boston has been strong at the plate on the season. The Red Sox have a .254 batting average, which is 5th in the league. Boston has posted an OBP of .315, which is 14th in the MLB. The Red Sox have earned a .724 OPS, which is 12th in the league. Boston has a BA of .261 against left handers.

The Red Sox have had the better batting average this season, while Milwaukee is better in the OBP and OPS department. The Brewers earned eight hits on Friday night, while Boston put up seven hits. The Red Sox will look to hit better with players on base. If either team can rack up the hits early, it could be enough for the win.

Pitching Preview

I expect Eric Lauer to get the start at pitcher for Milwaukee on Saturday afternoon. Lauer has started in 18 games this season, going 6-3 in those matchups. He has posted a 3.84 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20 in those games. Lauer’s last start was against the Colorado Rockies. He gave up six hits and four runs through four and a third innings in the no decision.

Nick Pivetta will likely get the nod on the mound for the Red Sox in this one. Pivetta has earned a record of 8-7 throughout his 20 starts this season. He has put up an ERA of 4.35 and a 1.28 WHIP in his starts. Pivetta pitched five and two thirds innings in his last start against the Cleveland Guardians. He gave up seven hits and one run in the no decision.

These two pitchers have been solid this season and will look for the win. Pivetta has lost his last two decisions entering this one. The Brewers have the edge in the bullpen in this game. Milwaukee’s relievers have combined for an ERA of 3.89, which is 16th in the MLB. Boston’s bullpen has a 4.25 ERA, which is 25th in the league. Both teams will look for pitching to step up in this one.

Pick Overview

The Brewers were able to take the first game on the road in this set, but I think Boston can bounce back. The Red Sox have been the better team at the plate and are coming off a one run performance. I expect Boston to step up early in this one. If the Red Sox can get a strong start from Pivetta, I think they can grab the win at home.

Bovada has Boston listed as a -120 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Red Sox will win this game around 54.6 percent of the time. I think that this line is accurate with Boston being at home. The Red Sox will look to come out much faster in this one. As slight favorites, I like the value in Boston.

The Bet
Boston Red Sox
-120
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.