Brewers vs. Reds MLB Pick – September 24th

Standing between the Milwaukee Brewers and the postseason are the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies. Both are on the road, so the Brewers don’t have the comfort of Miller Park over the next six games. The Chicago Cubs are still alive and can catch the Brewers. Despite them feeling down and out, the Cubs have to pick themselves up and understand that their season isn’t in the trash yet.

They must keep in mind that the Brewers aren’t going to get automatic wins on the road. The Cubs are on the road as well for their next six games, but half of those are against the Pittsburgh Pirates. By the time they get to St. Louis next weekend, are the Cardinals going to be playing for anything? That could be a good opportunity.

Nonetheless, overcoming a 4-game deficit in six games is going to be a tricky endeavor. What the Brewers have to avoid is looking at the standings. Block out all the noise of where they are in the standings and the issues the Cubs are having. As soon as the Cubs started standing watching and listening to the news of Christian Yelich out for the Brewers, their season has gone into the waste basket.

There is still time to fish their season out of the basket, but they’re running out of time. The Brewers are in Cincinnati against a disappointing Reds team. Trading for Yasiel Puig was a massive waste. On the positive side, there is a solid chance the Reds are going to have a solid starting rotation to begin 2020.

We haven’t been able to say that in a long time regarding the Reds. Sonny Gray has proven that he can still be the pitcher from Oakland. He’s re-emerged after a tough year in the Bronx with the Yankees. Gray will get the nod against Adrian Houser tonight. Head below for our free Brewers vs. Reds pick.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Reds -140/Brewers +120
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Adrian Houser (6-7, 3.83 ERA)
  • Sonny Gray (11-7, 2.80 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Sonny Gray went from getting booed and laughed off the field at Yankee Stadium to becoming a top of the rotation guy in Cincinnati. Gray finished with an ERA of 4.90 in his lone full season with the Yankees. He was traded from the Athletics after posting a 3.42 ERA in 16 starts in 2017. All wasn’t perfect for Gray in Oakland.

He had one bad season with a 5.69 ERA in 2016. Gray didn’t pitch a full season, though, only getting 22 starts in a season that he was injured. Maybe the Yankees gave up on him too early and considering what we’ve seen in 2019. His time in the Bronx were numbered after he was seen laughing after getting booed off the mound, though.

In any case, Gray will enter with an All-Star worthy ERA of 2.80 and 1.09 WHIP. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in an outing since July. Further, Gray has yielded 2 or fewer runs in eight out of his previous nine showings. Some of those teams were good offenses as well, with the Cardinals, Phillies, Cubs, and Braves on his resume.

His most recent appearance against the Brewers was an impressive outing. Gray allowed 4 hits and 1 earned run on July 22nd. He’s been solid against the Brewers, as they’re hitting .233 with 2 home runs swatted in 116 plate appearances. Gray goes into Tuesday with a 2.84 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his previous three contests. He likely does enough to hold the Brewers’ offense in check.

If Gray gets any run support is a bigger question, though. The Reds’ offense has been anemic recently, as the lineup appears to be done with 2019. They’ve averaged just 2.5 runs per game over their last nine games. Cincinnati rank 24th overall in the majors with 4.35 runs scored a game. Their opponent, Adrian Houser, has been sharp against them.

The Reds are hitting just .222 against Houser in 36 at-bats. He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in six of his previous eight outings. Note that the UNDER has gone 7-1 in the Brewers and Reds’ last eight meetings at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Look for that trend to move to 8-1 after tonight.

The Bet
UNDER 8.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.