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Brewers vs. Reds Pick MLB – April 28th

The Mets bounded back from their first losing series since Opening Day with a dramatic comeback 3-1 win, scoring all three runs in the top of the ninth to push their record to 15-5. On the other end of the spectrum, the Nationals dropped another game, this one 8-4 to the Braves to fall to 7-13 and a full eight games out of first. If you would have bet the Nationals would be EIGHT GAMES out of first place three a month in to the season you would have raised more than a few humorous eyebrows.

Can they fight their way back into the picture? Sure. There is a LONG way to go in this season and their roster is still loaded with talent. But their starting pitching is going to have to get their ERA down from the near-four clip, and they are going to have to start hitting, especially against left handed pitching where they are batting .197.

Let’s see if we can get a good week started with a winner tonight.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Milwaukee Brewers +175 at Cincinnati Reds -190 (Total: 7)

Kyle Lohse (1-3, 7.94 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (1-2, 1.86 ERA)

Johnny Cueto might enter tonight with a losing record, but it’s hard to place any of the blame on him directly. His ERA is under 2, his WHIP is a tidy 0.86, and he is averaging more than seven innings a start. He’s been fantastic, but his offense hasn’t given him much support.

But tonight could be different. The Brewers send Kyle Lohse to the mound, a former Red, who is off to a terrible start to the 2015 season. His ERA is approaching eight and he is allowing a ton of baserunners at 1.37 WHIP. Plus, the Reds have been dominant at home with Cueto on the mound. They are 9-0 in his last nine home starts.

Milwaukee is a stunning 4-16 this season with a MLB-worst -50 run differential. At some point, they will get a little closer to the middle of the pack statistically, but it might not be until they get a few of their guys back from injury, namely Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez. Most teams would struggle without their two best players. By the end of the year, Milwaukee will be a sneaky good bet as they continued to get significantly downgraded and undervalued. But until those guys return, I’m going to keep cashing in at the free Milwaukee fade ATM.

Playing a -190 game feels a little too easy for the sake of this column, so I’m going to double up the wager and look for a big Reds win tonight at home and also grab them at +115 on the runline.

Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds to WIN -190 & Cincinnati -1.5 (+115)