Brewers vs. Reds Pick MLB – July 4th

I’m not getting cocky at all here – promise. I understand real well after covering MLB and hoops on the sportsgeek for more than five year now how fickle the mojo can be betting on sports. It’s the way it goes, some ebbs and flows. As my late grandfather used to love to say, “you don’t see them closin’ many casinos do ya Chris?” A humorous reminder that it isn’t easy to consistently beat the house.

But I am feeling pretty good today after cashing in on a massive +230 underdog last night with Noah Syndergaard and the New York Mets.   It wasn’t that the game was a gimme, it was simply such a fantastic line that it was worth the flyer. I don’t have any double-your-money underdogs in store tonight, but we will try to keep the good times rolling on the Fourth.

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Let’s dive in to today’s free pick:

Milwaukee Brewers -117 at Cincinnati Reds +107 (Total: 8.5)

Jimmy Nelson (5-8, 4.48 ERA) vs. Josh Smith (0-1, 5.63 ERA)

I’ve been banging on the Brewers for a while now as a sleepy wager favorite. They’ve now won eight of their last eleven games and are scoring some runs in the process. It’s no coincidence that things are getting better as the talented lineup gets healthier. They throttled the Reds last night, putting up double digit runs and just capitulating the shutout in the ninth inning. They will look to keep the good times rolling tonight against Josh Smith who will be making his second big league start.

Meanwhile, Jimmy Nelson hasn’t exactly been throwing zeros up on the scoreboard. He enters with an ERA in the mid-fours and a WHIP of 1.30. The Reds have been feast of famine as much as any team in baseball and the trend has continued over their last ten games; they have scored five or more runs five times and scored two or less five times. I think after a quiet night, the feast-mode bats will be back in effect tonight at GABP.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee has averaged over seven runs a game in their last eight contests and have scored less than five runs in a game only a single time. Their offense is clicking, with Lucroy, Braun and Gomez all healthy at the same time at long last. It is hard to see the less than highly-touted Reds rookie shutting them down tonight.

I like both offenses to provide some Fourth of July fireworks and light up the scoreboard tonight.

Free Pick: Run TOTAL OVER 8.5