Brewers vs. Reds Pick – MLB July 4th

The 4th of July is signified by barbecues, hot dog eating contests, beer, and baseball. We have a full day of action beginning in the morning at 11:00 Eastern time, so that is pretty nice to have non-stop action all day long on this Saturday. Even better would be winning some money from baseball betting. Also, for the real degenerates out there you can bet on the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest. Joey Chesnut is the undisputed favorite in that one, as he enters as a -7.5 favorite. That is about as far as I’ll go breaking down a hot dog eating contest for you guys, but hey, like I always say if you have an angle on an event and it looks like it will make some money, then may as well lay it down and hope for the best. I just couldn’t come to the realization that I actually pissed away money on a hot dog eating contest, if the bet just so happened to lose. Again, there is also baseball to bet on today, so don’t feel like you need to go investing your money on hot dog eating contests.

Last night might have been the closest, yet furthest away loss I ever had in my sports betting career. If you were watching the game and following along with me, you already know what I’m alluding to. But for those that didn’t catch it allow me to explain. It was a 3-0 game in the bottom of the 9th and I was feeling confident about our UNDER 7 in the Rays and Yankees game. The Rays have a pretty strong bullpen so by all means, it was looking like we were going to cash. With only 8 outs needed for the rest of the game, Mark Teixeira connected on a 3 run long ball to tie the game up. Our best hope was for a push after that, but the Rays and Yankees went on to finish in wild fashion. The Rays took a 5-3 lead in extras, but then the Yankees stormed right back, scoring four runs to make it a 7-5 win off a Brian McCann dinger. Whoa. Remember, 3-0 with only 8 outs needed in the game.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Jimmy Nelson (5-8, 4.48 ERA) vs. Joshua Smith (0-1, 5.62 ERA)

During the first month of the season, it was certainly looking like the Milwaukee Brewers were going to go down as the worst team in all of baseball, and were going to have their worst season on record as a franchise. However, they have been able to dig themselves out of that hole, partially at least, and have been able to win some baseball games and look like a respectable club. In fact, the Brewers are on a five game win streak right now and are 8-2 in their last ten games.
Their offense has been mashing the ball during this stretch. They’ve averaged 6.6 runs in their last five games and put up 8 and 9 runs their last two games. The pitching has been a problem for the Brewers though, and Jimmy Nelson exemplifies that notion. He has a 4.48 ERA which could be better and could be worse, but the Brewers are definitely searching for more than that. On the road he has posted a 4.99 ERA with a WHIP of 1.60 and .369 OBA which is concerning to me.

Reds’ Joshua Smith has two starts under his belt, which came with mixed reviews. In his first start he allowed 4 runs and then followed it up allowing only 1 run. While that doesn’t look so bad, the amount of runners he’s putting on base is another story. Smith enters with a 2.12 WHIP and .436 OBA, so he is putting an average of over 2 runners on base per inning. He got out of some jams, but that will eventually catch up to a pitcher in the worst way. Play on the OVER 8.5.

PICK: OVER 8.5 RUNS (-106)