I got burned pretty good by the Washington Nationals last night. They were in a great position to snag another win over the San Diego Padres with Gio Gonzalez spinning some solid yarn. Unfortunately Anthony Rendon was responsible for their only run in a tough 2-1 loss.
I loved Washington at a solid -132 price in that game and they did not deliver, dropping me to 2-3 on the year when it comes to my MLB picks.
It’s back to the drawing board on Thursday night, where I’ll again try to push my way back up to .500.
There are several spots to attempt to do that, but I’m digging the value in a potential shootout in Coors Field between the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers.
Bettors have a couple different betting angles to consider here, so let’s dive into tonight’s matchup and see which is the best to take:
Milwaukee Brewers (+1.5, -135) @ Colorado Rockies (-1.5, +115) Total: 11.5 (-110)
It’s a game at Coors Field, so the Total is obscene. Both of these lineups can put the ball in play and bring a lot of power to the table, though, so the Over is very much an option tonight. I think there is a real argument to go either way, but with the Total being so high I tend to favor the Under in this spot.
It’s worth noting that Coors Field has disappointed when it comes to the Total lately, too. The Under is 24-10 in Colorado’s last 34 home games and while the pitching is far from great in this one, I think that’s the bet I’d roll with if I’m going there.
That isn’t where the best value is, however. I find it hard to go away from the Brewers at +138 at BetOnline, as they’re offering pretty nice value for a capable road team (11-7 away this year) with a lot of power in a hitter’s paradise.
I don’t think either side can get excited about the arm talent here.
I’d give the edge to Colorado’s German Marquez, but it’s fairly slight. He had a middling ERA at home in 2017 and so far in 2018 (10.64 ERA!) this has not been the place to trust him.
Marquez can still make some bats miss, but if he’s not racking up the strikeouts early, this one could get ugly for him.
It isn’t any better on the other side, as Jhoulys Chacin is not a strikeout maestro and hasn’t really done that well (5.73 ERA) on the road this year. He’s oddly most comfortable at the hittable Miller Park, but thanks to issues with his command and low K numbers, this is a bad spot to get behind him.
Chacin can put runners on base, which turns those solo shots in Coors Field to 2+ run homers. He’s been solid overall at managing games and eating innings, but I find it hard to believe he’s going to carve up the Rockies on the road.
Still, the pitching feels like a wash here and the Brewers offer you the most bang for your buck.
Colorado is notorious for struggling on the road, but they’ve been inexplicably weaker at home this year (6-8 at Coors). They’re also caught in a bit of a rut, as they got shutout at home in their last contest and they’ve failed to score more than four runs in any of their last four games.
Perhaps this is where Colorado blasts off and you can attack the Over, but these teams feel relatively even.
Milwaukee is 0.5 game back in the NL Central and has performed well, both on the road and in tight situations. They continue to be somewhat underrated and Vegas clearly isn’t respecting them at their +138 price tonight. I’m going to pounce on the value here and try to get a nice upset pick.