Cardinals vs. Brewers Pick – April 21st

We came up a run short last night on our Washington Nationals Runline play as R.A. Dickey did a solid job keeping the game in check and the Nats won by just a single run, 3-2.  If you took the more conservative Nationals -165 to WIN play, then you cashed in a winner.

We will try to get back on track tonight with a ton of really interesting NL action to sift through.  The first place Reds will get a chance to quickly find out how real their first three weeks really are with a visit from the defending champs – and Lester, Arietta and Lackey in three straight.  Win THAT series, and maybe we can take the Redlegs a little more seriously.  The NL West offers up two similar scenarios as the April darlings host the venerable October regulars.  Colorado gets a weekend visit from the Giants while Arizona hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers.

But the marquee series of the weekend is a battle of two division leaders whom everyone EXPECTED to be in the spots they currently occupy, Washington and New York.  These two have had a nice rivalry over the last three seasons and tonight should be electric with Tanner Roarke putting his unbeaten mark on the line against similarly unblemished Matt Harvey.

It’s going to be a great weekend of baseball, so let’s make it even better with a winning play.

Today’s MLB Pick:

St. Louis Cardinals -110 at Milwaukee Brewers +109
Adam Wainwright (0-3, 7.29 ERA) vs. Wily Peralta (3-0, 2.65 ERA)

I take no pleasure in fading Adam Wainwright every time he takes the mound.  I really don’t.  But as long as his ERA hovers above seven and the Cards keep running him out there every five days and Vegas refuses to recognize the 2017 reality – I’m betting the other side.

Tonight I can get plus-money with a team playing good baseball and a pitcher with a perfect 3-0, a 2.65 ERA and who has struck out 13 batters in 17 innings?  Sounds like a pretty good value wager to me.  Sure, Peralta’s career numbers against the Cards aren’t great and Waino’s numbers against the Brewers are excellent, 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA – but Wainwrights CAREER numbers are excellent.  He has been a fantastic pitcher for a really long time.  So far in 2017, he is no longer that guy.

I’ll take the hotter team with the hotter starter tonight and jump on the plus-money with a team that frankly should be -120 or so.  The Cardinals are second-worst in the NL in run differential at -21 and third lowest in runs scored.  The offense is scuffling and Wainwright has yet to show he can hang up zeros in 2017.  Advantage Brewers, hence today’s relatively easy pick.


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