Cardinals vs. Brewers Pick MLB – July 8th

The return of Ryu was a disappointing one for the Dodger faithful as he dropped his return outing, allowing six runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.  The good news for us is that Drew Pomeranz handled his business with aplomb, allowing just two hits and blanking the Dodgers en route to a 6-0 victory, and a total tucking one run safely UNDER the seven run total line.  The result was an eighth win in ten plays without a SINGLE winner coming on a moneyline favorite.  Suffice it to say, it’s been a nice little profitable few weeks, and we are looking to keep it going into the final weekend before the All Star Break.

Speaking of All Star Week, kudos to MLB for opening up the Homerun Derby Field to include more non-All Stars, something they had been reluctant to do in the past.  Because of the wise decision, we get to see defending champ Todd Frazier and the mighty Giancarlo Stanton.   It should be a fun event.  I’ll likely have some picks and predictions shortly (last year we hit all seven round correctly), but my early inclination is that is hard to bet against Stanton and his massive power…

It is a fun final first-half weekend, with the Cubs and Pirates hooking up, the Nats and Mets, and perhaps more importantly, Stephen Strasburg putting his perfect 11-0 record on the line in New York against Noah Syndergaard.  It should be a fun Friday of baseball.

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Today’s Free Pick:

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (EVEN)  — Total: 9

Michael Wacha (5-7, 4.38) vs. Jimmy Nelson (5-7, 3.65 ERA)

Somewhat surprisingly, the Brewers, after their dreadful start to the season and despite having the 12th ranked offense in the National League, enter tonight with a winning 22-20 record at home and playing basically .500 ball since May 1st.  The Cardinals, despite a top ranked offense and all that Cardinal pedigree are only three games over .500 and a surprisingly dreadful record at home.

However, tonight is on the road where the Cards are 25-15, good for the second best road record in the National League.  That makes tonight a pretty interesting matchup, and no coincidence that the game is at least opening as a pick ‘em.

My play is not on either team, but on both pitchers and staffs having a little better day than expected.  Jimmy Nelson has a bad record but a competent ERA at 3.65.  The Brewers have lost six straight games he has started, but Nelson has only personally allowed four runs over his last 16 innings.  The Cardinals have a potent lineup, but nine runs is a pretty decent cushion today.

Likewise, Wacha has had some struggles this season, but has allowed three or less runs in his last five starts and has only surrendered 11 runs over the 32 1/3 inning span.  That’s pretty solid stuff.  Add in the mediocre Brewer lineup, and it lines up for Wacha to fare well tonight.

I like this game to tuck in under the lofty nine run cushion tonight.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL UNDER 9