Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks MLB Pick – June 27th

The Arizona Diamondbacks finally found a way to gain some ground on the Dodgers. Wait for them to have an off day. Arizona took full advantage of the break in the Dodgers schedule, and will hope the day off will douse some fire on Cody Bellinger and the ten-game win streak. Arizona’s 6-1 win over Philly was Zack Greinke’s ninth win on the season as he continues to look more like the Cy Young guy they thought they were buying two off-seasons ago.

The Cubs took advantage of similar situation to pick up a half-game on the idle Brewers in a 5-4 win that featured the youngest starting lineup in baseball this season with several plauers just a few days removed from AAA. It seems like an embarrassment of riches that the Cubs can win with call-ups, considering the entirety of their positional core is under 30, and most are under 25…

Alas, the schedule ramps up tonight with everyone back in action after a light National League slate. The highlights are Game Two of the Cubs/Nats possible playoff preview featuring Jake Arrieta and Max Scherzer, and the less flashy, but equally compelling Carlos Martinez vs. Tiajuan Walker duel as the D’Backs get a visit from the slumping Cardinals.

Today’s MLB Pick:

St. Louis Cardinals -118 at Arizona Diamondbacks +109 (Total: 8.5)
Carlos Martinez (6-6, 2.87 ERA) vs. Tiajuan Walker (6-3, 3.43 ERA)

The Diamondbacks are at home, where they have been one of the best wagers in baseball at a staggering 29-10 SU home record. Meanwhile, the Cardinals haven’t travelled well, checking in at 15-20 SU. Right off the bat, that makes tonight a strong value proposition with the ‘Backs getting slight plus money at Chase Field.

Secondly, there is the starting pitching matchup. The Cards have a slight statistical edge with Martinez on getting the ball, but Walker has been solid this season as well, and he has the far better offense backing him up at home. Arizona is slight percentage points behind Washington and the Dodgers for the most runs per game in June and trails only Washington for the entire season. Their lineup is clicking and the damage they are inflicting at home is ridiculous.

It’s hard to go against a team that is 29-10 at home and has a solid starter getting the ball, especially when you can also get some plus money along the way. Walker should be well rested as well as he has missed four starts over the last six weeks with blister issues. He is supposed good to go tonight, so I will side with Arizona and trust they wouldn’t send their 24-year old stud to the mound unless all was truly copacetic.

I expect a tense game, as Martinez has ten quality starts in his last eleven outings and is fourth in MLB in that category, but in the end, the better team at plus money is hard to ignore.


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