We had a profitable day yesterday thanks to the Phillies taking advantage of the slight foibles of Max Scherzer en route to a nice +200 upset win over the dominant Nationals. Things got a little dicey when the Nationals had the tying run on base with Bryce Harper at the dish with two outs in the ninth. I thought the Phillies might have Barry Bonds’d him and walked the potential winning run on base – but they went after him. And were successful. The final stood at 4-3 Phillies and we cashed a fat winner. We almost made the night a monster night as the Reds held a 3-0 lead in New York behind another dominant outing from 23-year old Brandon Finnegan, but unfortunately he allowed a seventh run homerun to Cespedes to ruin his shutout and the Reds bullpen did what it does so reliably; bring a gas can out to the mound, for a four-run seventh to lose the game 4-3.
Either way, it was a positive money night, even though it could have been a monster night…
Let’s see if we can have our sixth positive money night in seven tries with a winner tonight.
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Today’s Free Pick:
St. Louis Cardinals +120 at Arizona Diamondbacks -130 (Total: 8.5)
Adam Wainwright (0-3, 7.25 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (1-2, 3.51 ERA)
It’s been a tough start to the season and the long-anticipated rehab project for Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals. He has allowed 18 runs in just over 22 innings and is sporting a .326 batting average against. His WHIP is 1.75. All these numbers are all obviously insanely high, and I expect them to come down considerably. But until we see some evidence Adam Wainwright is even close to “back” it seems reasonable to expect some runs to be tallied against him.
Meanwhile, Patrick Corbin probably deserves better than his 1-2 record, but he was battered in his last outing and well-earned his loss. His home ERA is right in line with the rest of Arizona’s pitiful staff performance. Corbin’s ERA is 5.41 at home and the staff overall is a league non-Colorado-worst 6.43 ERA.
It all adds up to some runs crossing the dish tonight. St. Louis has scored more runs than anyone in the National League with 126 in just 20 games, good for 6.3 runs per contest. Corbin will have his work cut out for him in a batter-friendly ballpark in which he has struggled. So the only way to bet the UNDER intelligently is if you think Wainwright bounces back to old form tonight. It is certainly POSSIBLE, but there has been no evidence this season that it is likely.
I’ll take the more dominant trends for both teams and bank on some offense tonight in Arizona.