We notched a massive underdog winner with the Giants at +185 last night to snap a losing skid in a major way. I don’t recommend always chasing after the big dogs, but in a sport where the best teams only win 90 and the lousy teams lose 90, the slim margin in the middle makes laying a ton on huge favorites a poor long term strategy overall. Alas, just because “upsets” are common doesn’t mean picking the right one are, so I will take our win with gratitude and will keep an eye on when (or if) the Cubs start meriting the huge favorite status they are anointed with most evenings…
Elsewhere, Zack Greinke fanned 12 White Sox in a 5-1 win to push his ERA back under three and his record to 6-2, the Braves stayed hot to pull to just four games under .500 as Brandon Phillips belted his 200th homerun, and the Reds snapped their losing skid behind Scott Schebler’s 13th homerun. The Reds are two games under .500 but now boast five of the top twenty homerun hitters in the National League, with Schebler and Votto in the top five.
It’s a fuller slate tonight with every N.L. team in action, highlighted by Jon Lester and Johnny Cueto dueling on ESPN, followed by Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn on the same network at 10pm EST.
Let’s see if we can start some momentum this week with another winning wager!
Today’s MLB Pick:
St. Louis Cardinals +250 at Los Angeles Dodgers -265 (Total: 7)
Lance Lynn (4-2, 2.68 ERA) vs. Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 2.15 ERA)
Fading the greatest pitcher in the modern era seems to be a foolish strategy, especially given that he appears to still be at the height of his powers with a 2.15 ERA and nice 7-2 record. But laying -265 against Lance Lynn, who is also in the Top Five in ERA in the National League and has a good lineup and a team that sits at 13-9 on the road playing alongside him? That’s really aggressive.
This has all the makings of a tense baseball game, and it feels a little overly simplistic to just assume the Dodgers roll because Kershaw is on the bump. They have lost twice with him on the mound this season, but he has only failed to deliver a quality start once, and that was a 4-2 loss at Colorado where he allowed four runs in six innings. Aside from that, it’s been pretty excellent stuff. Every other start has seen him get through the seventh inning and hold batters to a batting average under .200. The Cards can hit, but Kershaw should be able to neutralize that at home tonight.
But will his mates hit? Lance Lynn has been excellent this season, but has shown some signs of regressing to the mean a bit, allowing six earned runs in his last two starts, totaling just 10 innings. Batters are hitting just .205 against him this season. His career average is .246. His WHIP of 1.13 is well under his career average as well, though has been closer to his more customary 1.30 over the last two starts.
I am still not willing to fade Kershaw OR lay the massive amount to back him. But I do think Lynn will be decent tonight, which should keep the run total in check. I’ll take the UNDER 7 in a nice pitcher-friendly duel at Chavez Ravine this evening.
Today’s MLB Pick: RUN TOTAL UNDER 7