We saw Michael Wacha completely blitz the New York Mets on Tuesday night, pitching a complete game shutout on the road. That wasn’t the norm for a guy who sports a nasty 5.13 road ERA (over 7 before last night’s outing), but perhaps we should have seen it coming given New York’s struggles in this matchup in the past.
It’s not crazy to think that’s just a blip on the radar for this New York offense, however, as the Mets have been red hot since the All-Star break and tonight get the backing of elite ace, Jacob deGrom. The Mets could be in a good spot to get a big home win, while Vegas agrees, handing them a -150 Money Line.
Should we back the Mets to get a win in game three of a four-game series? The logic is there with deGrom toeing the rubber at home, but we still need to wonder if the Cardinals can keep their current momentum going and snag a third straight win. Let’s take a closer look at Wednesday’s matchup to see which way we’ll want to be betting:
St. Louis Cardinals (+130) @ New York Mets (-150) Total: 8
Mike Leake (6-7, 3.14 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (10-3, 3.48 ERA)
St. Louis has had the upper hand in this series and gives us all of the value, but betting against Jacob deGrom at Citi Field is going to take some stones. deGrom has proven to be one of the best pitchers in the majors in 2017 and has specifically been a problem for opposing offenses at home with a nasty 2.37 ERA. We’ve seen some elite recent form out of the 29-year old righty, too, as deGrom completely stifled a powerful Rockies team (11 Ks, 1 run) in his last start and has allowed just 8 total runs in his last six starts.
We don’t need a ton of reasoning to get behind deGrom in this spot at home, but we also shouldn’t just trust in him blindly. After all, deGrom hasn’t been amazing against the Cards over the last three years and coughed up an astonishing four dingers the last time he faced them earlier this year. Even worse, is St. Louis thrives against right-handed pitching, ranking 10th in MLB in batting average and 13th in power.
While the Cardinals aren’t an easy matchup on paper, deGrom is at home and in quite the groove. Given his recent form and the solid value provided at -150, the Mets make a lot of sense tonight.
On the other side we get Mike Leake, who continues to manage games at a decent level for the Cardinals. The 29-year old right went through a rough patch and sporadically has some bouts with the long ball, but he’s settled down recently, allowing just 10 runs over his last five outings. Leake isn’t an elite arm and he’ll be on the road, but he’s actually surprisingly performed better outside of Busch Stadium.
It’s not all promising for Leake, who owns a 5.40 ERA against a dangerous Mets lineup over the last three years. New York didn’t look too dangerous last night, but they’re still at home and are far from an easy matchup. The Mets rank 8th in home runs against righties on the year and are loaded with left-handed bats that could threaten to take Leake deep.
The Cardinals have taken the first two games in this series and are a threat to take a third tonight, but I’m not betting against an elite ace like deGrom. He’s at home and the Mets have a good enough matchup that I could see their offense popping off enough support to land deGrom his 11th win of the year. We can chase the Run Line for the Mets here (+150), but I’d rather just take them straight up.