The Rays and Dodgers stayed under the total last night thanks to some excellent efforts from a pair of previously-struggling starters in Chris Archer and Bud Norris. Archer still took the loss, giving him a staggering 14 on the season and putting an ignominious 20 losses well in play for the recent All Star, but last night clearly wasn’t all his fault. He pitched well, but Norris pitched better, and perhaps more importantly, had the Dodgers offense supporting him instead of the inept Rays.
We are still up on the week thanks to a nice fat underdog winning on Monday, so let’s see if we can add to that tally tonight with bounce-back winning play. There are some nice games on the slate to choose from on a getaway Wednesday afternoon.
Let’s head out to New York for today’s free pick.
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Today’s Free Pick:
St. Louis Cardinals -125 at New York Mets +117 (Total: 7.5)
Adam Wainwright (9-5, 4.09 ERA) vs. Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.14 ERA)
We made some easy money early in the season fading Adam Wainwright as he struggled to regain his previous excellent form following a season lost to surgery and injury. However, betting against Waino has gotten a lot more challenging lately. The former Cy Young winner leads MLB in ERA for the month of July at 0.93. He hasn’t allowed a homerun in his last 60.2 innings pitched; a pretty remarkable mark in this homer-happy season. Most importantly, the Cardinals are 13-3 in the last 16 games Wainwright has started.
Add in the fact that the Cardinals have the most efficient offense in the National League and one of the best road records in baseball, and it feels like they should be a little more heavily favored tonight against Logan Verrett, the Mets sixth starter, tonight at CitiField.
Verrett enters with a losing record and an ERA over four. More troubling, he has padded those numbers with some success out of the bullpen. He is just 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA as a starting pitcher. The Mets have won ten of fifteen games and have been hitting, but should be challenged tonight by a red-hot Wainwright who LOOKS like the guy who won a Cy Young award for the first time in years.
The value is so heavily tilted on the Cardinals side of the wager this evening that it is hard to ignore. There are no sure-things in baseball. Good teams lose a lot, even with pitching advantages, but the key is to find the best VALUES each night. The Cards are easily the best NL value tonight.